人类发展评估的三个阶段和基于“地球边界”的新指数

Three stages of human development evaluation and a new index based on‘planetary boundaries’

人类发展评估是公共部门和学术界的关注热点。文章从可持续发展的视角,把人类发展评估研究识别为三个阶段,指出需要在第三阶段背景下开展深化研究。第一阶段对GDP用作人类发展衡量指标的合理性提出质疑,提出用人类发展指数(HDI)进行替代。第二阶段以“弱可持续”为依据,假设自然资本和人造资本可以互相替代,将生态环境影响的“绝对值”融入人类发展评估。第三阶段以“强可持续”和“地球边界”为依据,强调自然资本的绝对稀缺性和不可替代性,将生态环境影响越过生态承载能力和“地球边界”的“相对值”融入人类发展评估。在以上分析的基础上,文章构建基于第三阶段“地球边界”概念的人类发展评估新指数(Planetary Boundaries⁃adjusted HDI,PB⁃HDI)。PB⁃HDI本着简单、透明和易于解读的原则,强调在“地球边界”以内实现较高的经济社会发展水平,为构建人与自然生命共同体提供有效指引。文章计算162个国家在最近年份的PB⁃HDI值和排名,得到的结果与传统的HDI结果有很大的不同,证明较高的经济社会发展水平会因为越过“地球边界”的生态环境影响而打折扣,而较小的生态环境影响不能弥补和补偿较差的经济社会表现。以PB⁃HDI为指引,中国未来发展需要努力实现经济社会发展与生态环境影响的绝对脱钩,争取在“地球边界”以内提升人民群众的生活质量。

Human development evaluation has always been a hot topic for public sectors and academic circles.From the perspective of sustainable development,this paper divides research on human development evaluation into three stages and points out that more work needs to be done following the research of the third stage.Research of the first stage criticizes the rationality of GDP as a proxy of hu⁃man development and puts forward the HDI to replace GDP.Research of the second stage is based on theories of‘weak sustainability’,which presumes that mutual substitution can be achieved between natural capital and human capital.The research of the second stage incorporates‘absolute values’of ecological impact into human development evaluation.Research of the third stage is based on theories of‘strong sustainability’and‘planetary boundaries’,which stresses that natural capital is absolutely scarce and unsubstitutable.The research of the third stage incorporates‘relative values’of ecological impact(relative to ecological capacities and planetary boundar⁃ies)into human development evaluation.On the basis of the above analysis,this paper constructs a new index of human development,i.e.Planetary Boundaries⁃adjusted HDI(PB⁃HDI),based on the concept of‘planetary boundaries’of the third stage.Being simple,trans⁃parent and easy to comprehend,the PB⁃HDI advocates the achievement of higher levels of economic⁃social development within plane⁃tary boundaries and provides effective guidances on how to foster a community of life for man and nature.This paper uses the latest data to calculate the PB⁃HDI values and ranks of 162 countries,which are different by a large extent with those of the original HDI.The PB⁃HDI values and ranks further demonstrate that higher levels of economic⁃social development would be discounted because of large eco⁃logical impact beyond planetary boundaries and that small ecological impact would not compensate for poor economic⁃social perfor⁃mance.Guided by the PB⁃HDI,in the future,China should achieve absolute decoupling between economic⁃social development and eco⁃logical impact and improve life quality within planetary boundaries as soon as possible.