农户贷款早偿行为影响机理分析

Analysis and Empirical Study on the Influence Mechanism of Farmers’Loan Prepayment Behavior

近年来在涉农金融风险管理的实践中,除了传统的信用风险外,早偿风险成为新的风险管理焦点。金融机构和学者发现,即使不发生明显的信用风险,早偿风险仍然会加重金融机构的经营风险。本文基于农户与农户贷款的现状与特点,应用期权理论、生命周期理论、效用理论、金融素养理论对早偿行为影响机理进行分析,经过对农户贷款信息的研究,通过结构方程模型对农户贷款早偿所依赖的作用机制和其中存在的影响因素进行了深入研究。研究发现,在农户贷款早偿的影响因素中,其所拥有的再投资机会、整个家庭的整体收入状况以及借款人自身所拥有的的金融素养对早偿行为的发生存在负向影响;而在另一方面,贷款本身的价格要素、农户借款人及其家庭所处的生命周期阶段对早偿行为的发生存在正向影响;农户借款人的再投资机会、金融素养及人口生命周期特征还通过其他因素间接影响早偿行为。

In the recent practice of financial risk management,prepayment risk has become a new focus of risk management,in addition to the traditional credit risk.Financial institutions and scholars have found that even if there is no obvious credit risk,the prepayment risk will still aggravate the operating risk of financial institutions.Based on the present situation and characteristics of farmers and farmers’loans,this paper applies option theory,life cycle theory,utility theory,and financial literacy theory to analyze the influence mechanism,studies the data of farmers’loans,and uses structural equation model to study the mechanism and influencing factors of prepayment behavior.The results show that the reinvestment opportunities,household income level,and financial literacy of the borrowers have a negative impact on the prepayment behavior.The factors of loan price and the life cycle of borrowers and their families have a positive impact on the prepayment behavior.Borrowers’reinvestment opportunities,financial literacy,and life cycle also indirectly affect prepayment behavior through other factors.