地缘位势视角下中美俄与伊朗的地缘关系解析

Analysis of the Geopolitical Relations between China,the USA,Russia,and Iran--From a Geo-Potential Perspective

在厘清空间视角下权力作用机制的基础上,构建地缘位势模型,刻画“9·11”事件后中美俄在伊朗的地缘位势演化特征,结合国别研究尝试解读中美俄与伊朗的地缘关系,主要得出以下结论:1)美国在伊朗的地缘位势在负向高位区间频繁波动,俄罗斯的位势在正向中位区间小幅波动,美国和俄罗斯的波动呈现“强-强”机制,中国的位势变化则与其较为剥离,呈“S”型曲线大幅增长。2)中美俄在伊朗的地缘位势是地理位置、地缘外交、地缘经济和地缘文化各要素共同作用的结果,其中地理位置是基底要素,地缘外交是决定要素,地缘经济是驱动要素,地缘文化是协作要素。3)中伊的地缘战略空间互补性重叠,中国综合国力的增强和双边经贸依赖的加深提升着地缘关系的强度和密度;美伊的地缘关系偶有缓和但总体较差,呈现出的波动性是国内政治生态和国际政治环境下的双重应答;俄伊地缘关系紧密缘于传统地理空间邻近和地缘战略考量,两国间存在着由经济利益、政治选择、安全保障等各种因素构成的稳定却复杂的地缘关系网络。

Iran is an important political power and strategic hub in the Middle East,connecting Central Asia and West Asia,acting as a significant route from Asia to North Africa and Europe;it is an intersection of the"Silk Road Economic Belt"and the"21^(st) Century Maritime Silk Road".Coupled with the enrichment of petroleum resources and the control of global oil security,Iran's geostrategic position is very important.This study constructs a geo-potential mathematical model and index system from a spatial perspective,including the geo weight evaluation index system,weight distribution,interdependence index,and geo-distance measurements while innovatively incorporating the element of geostrategic investment willingness.Based on these factors,this study conducts a quantitative,comparative analysis of the geo-potential of China,the USA,and Russia in Iran after September 11st,2001,from two dimensions-"strong-weak"and"positive-negative."Subsequently,the driving factors and mechanisms of geo-potential are obtained through mathematical model construction and empirical research.Finally,by placing Iran on regional and global scales and thoroughly considering both international and regional geopolitical patterns around foreign policy and strategy,we analyze geopolitical relations between China,the USA,Russia,and Iran:diplomatic,economic,and cultural factors considered from a geo-potential perspective.We hope that this study will enrich research on Iran studies and geopolitical studies,through its understanding of the power interaction mechanism and geopolitical relations between global powers and Iran,while providing a research basis to promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)The USA's geo-potential in Iran fluctuates frequently in the negative high range,and Russia's geo-potential fluctuates slightly in the positive median range.Fluctuations between these two countries thus show a"strong-strong"interaction.The change of China's geo-potential is relatively separate from that of the USA and Russia,showing an"S"shaped curve trending upward,thus gradually narrowing the gap with Russia.Russia and China have a positive influence on Iran(attraction),while the USA has a negative influence on Iran(repulsion),which is much stronger than the attraction from Russia and China.(2)Geo-diplomacy is the decisive factor guiding the trend of geo-economy and geo-culture.Geo-economy is the direct driving force of the evolution of geo-potential.Geo-culture acts as a collaborative factor;geo economy and geo-culture both have a potential influence on geo-diplomacy.(3)Based on amicable geo-cultural relations,the strengthening of China's comprehensive national strength and the deepening of bilateral economic interdependence constantly enhances the intensity of geopolitical relations between China and Iran.The geopolitical relationship between the USA and Iran is occasionally eased but is generally poor.Volatility is largely due to changes in foreign policy triggered by the change of governments,which is the dual response of the domestic political system and the international political environment.The close geopolitical relationship between Russia and Iran is owing to the geographical proximity and the need for a geo-strategy.There is a stable but complex geopolitical relationship network between these two countries,composed of economic,political,and security factors.