东南亚恐怖主义的时空演进及其网络关系

Time and Space Evolution and Network Relationship of Terrorism in Southeast Asia

以全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)的研究数据为基础,运用地学空间统计分析方法和社会网络分析方法,对2000-2018年东南亚发生的恐怖主义事件进行时空演变特征分析及其参与组织的社会网络关联解析,得出以下结论:1)东南亚恐怖主义发展态势呈现显著的阶段性波动增长,在空间上表现为明显的集聚性,由2000-2013年的两极集聚中心转变为2014-2018年的三级集聚中心。2)东南亚恐怖主义组织众多,恐怖组织类型复杂,各恐怖组织及独狼型恐怖主义之间通过情报、资源及人员交流等方式进行联系,形成了一个巨大的跨地区恐怖组织网络;以伊斯兰祈祷团(JI)为代表的东南亚恐怖组织在上个世纪90年代利用域外组织的支持建立了一个横跨多国、分工明确的4M活动网络,并利用此活动网络进行资金筹集、人员培训、策划活动等。3)东南亚恐怖主义迅速发展有其深层次原因,既有地区内部社会文化、政治环境和经济发展的影响,又有区域外恐怖主义势力的干预。

Since 2000,terrorism in Southeast Asia has developed rapidly via numerous terrorist organizations.As the regional anti-terrorism situation has become increasingly severe,regional security has faced serious challenges.The research is based on the research data of the Global Terrorism Database(GTD),using geospatial statistical methods to visualize the spatial variation terrorist activities in Southeast Asia from 2000 to 2018,and to analyze the characteristics of the temporal and spatial research of terrorist activities in Southeast Asia.Social network analysis methods were used to analyze the internal and external social relations of terrorist organizations in Southeast Asia.This helped us to have a certain understanding of the development situation of terrorism in Southeast Asia and to provide a reference for Southeast Asian countries to formulate relevant counter-terrorism measures and strengthen regional counter-terrorism cooperation in the future.The study draws the following conclusions:(1)A total of 10,440 terrorist activities occurred in Southeast Asia from 2000 to 2018,showing a significant volatility growth over time,with obvious phase changes.According to the trend of terrorism in Southeast Asia and its spatial changes,this period can be divided into three stages,namely:rising volatility(2000-2010),rapid development(2011-2013),and turbulence and change stage(2014-2018).In terms of spatial distribution,Southeast Asian terrorism activities are highly concentrated,with significant agglomeration,showing a trend of diffusion and agglomeration.The agglomeration center has changed from a two-pole agglomeration center in 2000 to a three-level agglomeration center in 2018:the southern region of Thailand,the southern islands of the Philippines and the southern islands of the Philippines,and mountainous areas in western Myanmar.(2)There are many terrorist organizations in Southeast Asia,the types of which are complex.The members of the terrorist organization network are closely related.The terrorist organizations and the lone wolf type terrorism are related through intelligence,resource,and personnel exchanges.A huge cross-regional terrorist organization network has been established.In this network of terrorist organization relations,various terrorist organizations cooperate and act together,posing a serious threat to the anti-terrorism situation in Southeast Asia.In the 1990s,Southeast Asian terrorist organizations represented by JI,established the 4M activity network with a clear division of labor across many countries with the support of foreign organizations and used this activity network to raise funds,train personnel,and plan activities.(3)There are deep-seated reasons for the rapid rise of terrorism in Southeast Asia,not only the influence of social culture,political environment,and economic development within the region but also the intervention of terrorist forces outside the region.