不可再生自然资源对经济增长的福祸之辨

Is Non-renewable Natural Resources a Blessing or a Curse to Economic Growth?

中国经济已由高速增长转向高质量发展阶段,切实摆脱资源依赖与环境压力是提升发展可持续性的当务之急。基于1985—2017年中国省级自然资源租金与自然资本估算结果,确定14个资源倚重型省份,并利用Panel-ARDL模型与PMG估计方法揭示不可再生资源和经济增长的长短期关系。研究发现:无论基于租金流量或自然资本存量,长期系数均表明资源倚重型省份遭遇资源诅咒;不可再生自然资源对经济增长短期系数为正,构成资源倚重型省份谋求短期利益而损害长期发展的诱因;经济增长通过影响需求推升自然资源价格与开采强度,强化资源倚重型省份的短视发展模式。为摆脱资源诅咒,应做好国民财富各类资本的“投资组合管理”,将不可再生自然资源租金转化为对物质资本、人力资本及技术研发的投资,改善产业结构并提升资源利用效率,抵制短视诱惑以获取长期利益。

It is imperative to get rid of resource dependence and environmental pressure to enhance the sustainability of development.Based on the estimates of provincial Natural Resource Rents and Natural Capital within 1985-2017,14 resource dependent provinces were identified,and the long-term and short-term relationships between non-renewable natural resources and economic growth were revealed using Panel-ARDL model and PMG estimation method.The main findings are:(1)Whether based on rent flow or capital stock,the long-term coefficients indicate that resource-dependent provinces are subject to resource curse;(2)The short-term coefficients of non-renewable natural resources to economic growth is positive,which is the incentive of resource-dependent provinces to seek short-term interests at the expense of long-term development;(3)Economic growth promotes the price and exploitation intensity of natural resources,then strengthens the short-sighted development pattern of resource-dependent provinces.In order to get rid of the resource curse,we should strengthen the“portfolio management”of national wealth,and turn the rent of non-renewable natural resources into investment of produced capital,human capital and R&D,improve industrial structure and enhance the efficiency of resource utilization,resist short-sighted temptation to obtain long-term benefits.