基于改进SIR的正负面网络舆情信息传播模型与仿真

Propagation model and simulation of positive and negative Internet public opinion information based on improved SIR

针对网络舆情传播过程中正负面信息共存的问题,在SIR模型的基础上,引入正面信息澄清者C,构建正负面信息同时传播的SCIR模型,并考虑首页效应和网民异质性,借助多智能体仿真技术对舆情的传播过程进行模拟仿真。仿真结果表明,SCIR模型比SIR模型更吻合现实网络中舆情的传播;第三方机构利用首页发表的声明可信程度越高,越有利于舆情控制,但存在阈值;首页效应对正负面信息的传播具有两面性,网民异质性和正负面信息传播率均对正负面信息竞争结果有显著影响。

Aiming at the coexistence of positive and negative information in the process of network public opinion dissemination,this paper introduced positive information clarifier C on the basis of the SIR model to construct an SCIR model for the simultaneous dissemination of positive and negative information.Considering the homepage effect and the heterogeneity of netizens,this paper used multi-agent simulation technology to simulate the spread of public opinion.The simulation results show that the SCIR model is more consistent with the dissemination of public opinion in the real network than the SIR model.The higher the credibility of the statements made by third-party organizations on the homepage,the more conducive to the control of public opinion,but there are thresholds.The homepage effect has both positive and negative effects on the results of online public opinion.Both the heterogeneity of netizens and the dissemination rate of positive and negative information have a significant impact on the outcome of the competition between positive and negative information.