人民币汇率变动对三大产业结构的影响——基于向量误差修正模型的实证分析

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Change on Three Industrial Structures--Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Error Correction Model

本文基于中国2000—2018年31个省市的面板数据,从理论上研究了人民币实际有效汇率和人民币名义有效汇率对中国第一产业、第二产业和第三产业的增加值占国内生产总值的影响,并运用相关计量经济模型就人民币汇率变动对国内产业结构的影响进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,人民币汇率贬值在短期内对第一、第三产业的发展有促进作用,对第二产业的发展存在抑制作用。而从长期来看,人民币汇率贬值对第一产业和第二产业的发展有抑制作用,对第三产业的发展有促进作用。并且由于存在短期纠偏机制,当受人民币汇率干扰的影响,三大产业偏离均衡时,都将受到一个反向的调整力度。

Based on panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018,this paper made theoretical analysis of effective RMB exchange rate and nominal effective RMB exchange rate’s impact on China’s primary,secondary and tertiary industries’added value to GDP.Using relevant econometric models,the paper also did empirical study of RMB exchange rate impact on China’s industry structure.The test results show that,on the one hand,in the short term,the deprecation of the RMB promotes the development of the primary and tertiary industries,and inhibits the development of the secondary industry.On the other hand,in the long run,the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has an inhibiting effect on the development of the primary and secondary industries,and a promoting effect on the development of the tertiary industry.Moreover,there is a short-term correction mechanism,which means that when the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries are disturbed by the RMB exchange rate and deviate from equilibrium,they will all be subjected to a reverse adjustment force.