实证与解释:小微信贷技术变迁与个人信用货币化微距观察——基于山东省Z市425份中小银行小微客户经验数据

Empirical Evidence and Explanation:Micro and Small Credit Technology Change and Personal Credit Monetization Micro Distance Observation——Based on 425 Empirical Data of Small and Medium-sized Banks’ Micro and Small Customers in Z City,Shandong Province

本文首先系统梳理出我国小微信贷技术的发展路径:交易型贷款—关系型贷款(担保)—信用贷款,其次,借助Logistic模型探析银行开展个人信用货币化的影响因素,接着,建立借贷双方博弈行动分析框架,剖析不同情境下小微个体难以获得银行信任的原因。研究发现:借贷双方陷入"囚徒困境"是小微个体难以获得银行信任的根本原因;小微个体信用贷款①可得性与征信记录状况、邻里评价、拥有保险数量、文化程度正相关,与其他负债负相关;结合引入担保约束、信誉约束和司法约束,银行开展了三次小微技术创新,促成借贷双方基于重复博弈预期建立起长期信任关系,进而奠定了信用贷款的基础。最后,本文讨论了科技、央行政策等对小微技术发展的影响。

This paper firstly,systematically sorts out the development path of micro and small credit technology in China:transactional loans-relationship-based loans(guarantee)-credit loans,secondly,using Logistic model to explore the influencing factors of banks to carry out personal credit monetization,then,establishing the game action analysis framework of the borrower and lender to analyze the reasons why it is difficult for small and micro individuals to gain the trust of the bank in different situations.The study finds that the"prisoner’s dilemma"between borrowers and lenders is the fundamental reason why micro and small have difficulty in gaining bank trust;the availability of credit loans for micro and small is positively correlated with credit history status,neighborhood evaluation,insurance ownership,and literacy,and negatively correlated with other liabilities;combine with the introduction of security constraints,credit constraints,and judicial constraints,the bank carried out three micro and small technology innovations that led to the establishment of a long-term trust relationship between borrowers and lenders based on repeated game expectations,which in turn laid the foundation for credit lending.Finally,this paper discusses the impact of technology and central bank policies on the development of small and micro technologies.