苏州轨道交通节假日客流预测研究

Passenger Flow Forecast for Suzhou Rail Transit During Holidays

节假日大客流往往会对城市轨道运营管理造成较大压力,及时准确地预测节假日期间客流,可以为城市轨道交通运营与管理部门制定运输计划、确定应对措施提供重要依据,保障节假日期间轨道交通安全顺畅运行。在分析节假日客流变化趋势的基础上,根据历史客流变化趋势获得基准客流;基于当前客流量水平,构建ARIMA-GARCH模型,预测轨道交通未来节假日各时段客流量。基于苏州轨道交通2018年与2019年的历史客流数据,对方法进行验证分析。结果表明,该方法能有效识别节假日客流特征,降低客流预测前期工作,并实现城市轨道交通节假日各时段客流预测。

Large passenger flows on holidays often result in excess pressure on urban rail operations and management.Timely and accurate prediction of passenger flow can help operation and management departments to formulate transportation plans and determine countermeasures to ensure safe and smooth operation.Based on the analysis of the changing trend of passenger flow during holidays,this study obtains the benchmark passenger flow based on previous trends,and constructs an ARIMA-GARCH model based on the current passenger flow level to predict the flow.This method was verified and analyzed using the passenger flow data of the Suzhou rail transit from 2018 to 2019.The results showed that the method could effectively identify the characteristics of passenger flow,reduce the preliminary work of forecasting,and realize the passenger flow forecast of urban rail transit during different holiday periods.