环境约束下的四川省畜禽养殖业结构优化研究

Study on the Structure Optimization of Livestock and Poultry Industry in Sichuan Province under Environmental Constraints

提出了一个水-碳-土地-经济的联动框架,包括畜牧业的直接影响和间接影响;同时建立了以贸易为基础的水资源利用、温室气体排放的优化体系。以四川省为例,假设充分运用沼气池的条件下,研究发现,有效利用畜禽粪便可转化为沼气能源17.83×10^(9)m^(3),折合标煤约等于1272.55万t,相当于2018年四川省天然气消费量的40.37%,可望成为未来四川省农业的创效之一。2018年四川省畜牧业产生碳排放约791.90万t,奶牛和猪的贡献较大,约占四川省全年碳排放总量的56.74%;耗水量约17.26×10^(9)m^(3),猪的消耗最大,约占全年耗水量的45.02%。耕地负荷粪便的水平为7.15 t/hm^(2),警报值为0.24,小于0.40,因此处在耕地可负荷的范围内。当置信水平从0.55提高至0.95时,肉牛和蛋禽地占地有少量优化空间,生产净效益从3.15亿元减少到3.12亿元。

A water-carbon-land-economy linkage framework was proposed,including the direct and indirect effects of animal husbandry;at the same time,an optimization system of water consumption and carbon emissions based on trade was established.Taking Sichuan Province as an example,assuming that under the condition of circular economy,the results showed that the amount of livestock manure converted into biogas was 17.83×10^(9)m^(3),equivalent to about 12.7255 million tons of standard coal,accounting for 40.37%of Sichuan's natural gas consumption in 2018.Biogas was expected to become one of the agricultural benefit expansion in the future.In 2018,the carbon emission from livestock husbandry in Sichuan was about 7.919 million tons,with cows and pigs accounting for 56.74%of the total annual carbon emission in Sichuan,and the water consumption was about 17.26×10^(9) m^(3),with pigs accounting for 45.02%of the total annual water consumption.The fecal load level of cultivated land was 7.15 t/hm^(2),and the alarm value was 0.24,which was less than 0.40,so it was in the range of cultivated land load.When the confidence level increased from 0.55 to 0.95,there was a small amount of optimization space for the land of beef cattle and laying hen,and the net production benefit decreased from 315 million yuan to 312 million yuan.