中国城乡家庭碳排放核算及驱动因素分析

Accounting and Driving Factors Analysis of Household Carbon Emissions in Urban and Rural China

文章在量化考察2013—2020年城乡居民生活直接碳排放和间接碳排放的基础上,对比分析城乡家庭单位碳排放差异,并基于不同的结构模型运用IPAT-LMDI方法对城乡家庭碳排放驱动因素进行识别。结果显示:城镇家庭生活碳排放远超农村,且差距存在继续扩大的趋势;城乡家庭生活间接碳排放远高于直接碳排放,无论城镇还是农村家庭控排的关键皆在于对间接碳排放的治理;在城乡家庭碳排放的驱动因素方面,人均住宅面积和人均消费支出是碳排放增加的主要驱动力,而家庭消费能源强度效应和家庭住宅能源强度效应则是抑制碳排放增加的主要原因。

This paper is based on the quantitative investigation of the direct and indirect carbon emissions of urban and rural residents from 2013 to 2020 to compare and analyze the differences of carbon emissions of urban and rural households.And then,the paper is based on different structural models to use ipAT-LMDI method to identify the driving factors of urban and rural household carbon emissions.The results show that the carbon emission of urban households is much higher than that of rural households,with the gap continuing to expand,that the indirect carbon emission of urban and rural households is much higher than the direct carbon emission,and the key to controlling household emissions in both urban and rural areas is to control indirect carbon emissions,and that in terms of driving factors of urban and rural household carbon emissions,per capita residential area and per capita consumption expenditure are the main driving forces of carbon emissions increase,while energy intensity effect of household consumption and residential energy intensity effect are the main reasons to restrain the increase of carbon emissions.