山东省铁矿资源供需形势分析

Analysis on Supply and Demand of Iron Ore Resource in Shandong Province

钢铁工业对促进经济和社会发展起着重要作用,随着社会经济迅猛发展,山东省钢铁工业取得快速发展,目前,山东省铁矿石消费量仍处于上升趋势,在此基础上,通过回归分析法预测未来5~10年山东省地区生产总值,运用综合平均增长率法、单位GDP矿石量法、回归分析法来预测未来铁矿石的需求量。预计2025年,山东省铁矿石产量为3561.44万t,消费量为11720.45万t,供需缺口为8159.01万t,由此预测69.6%的铁矿石依靠外省调入或进口;2030年铁矿石产量为4688.34万t,消费量为13219.06万t,供需缺口8530.72万t,预测64.65%的铁矿石依靠外省调入或进口。提出了山东省铁矿资源安全供应的对策建议:加强山东省富铁矿深部资源勘查,优化产业结构;深化矿业国际合作,结合国际合作和对外援助,互惠共赢。

The Iron and steel industry plays an important role in promoting economic and social development.Accompanying with rapid development of social economy,the iron and steel industry in Shandong province has achieved rapid development.At present,the consumption of iron ore in Shandong province is still on an upward trend.On this basis,by means of regression analysis,the Gross Domestic Product of Shandong Province in the next 5~10 years has been predicted.On the basis of the Gross Domestic Product in the future,by using comprehensive average growth rate method,the ore quantity per unit GDP method and the regression analysis method,the demand of iron ore in the future has been predicated.It is estimated that in 2025,the output of iron ore in Shandong Province will be 35.6144 million tons,the consumption will be 11.7245 million tons,and the supply and demand gap will be 8.5901 million tons.Therefore,it is predicted that 69.6%of iron ore will be transferred or imported from other provinces;In 2030,the output of iron ore will be 46.8834 million tons,the consumption will be 13.21906 million tons,and the supply and demand gap will be 8.5372 million tons.It is predicted that 64.65%of iron ore will be transferred or imported from other provinces.The countermeasures and suggestions for the safe supply of iron ore resources in Shandong Province are put forward.he exploration of deep resources of rich iron ore in Shandong Province should be strengthened,the industrial structure should be and optimized,international cooperation in mining industry should be deepened,and international cooperation and foreign assistance should be combined to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.