政府补贴与新能源汽车产业发展——基于系统动力学的演化博弈分析

Government Subsidies and Development of New Energy Vehicle Industry——Evolutionary Game Analysis Based on System Dynamics

新能源汽车被视为缓解能源消耗及环境问题的重点项目,成为了战略性新兴产业的一个重点发展目标。为探究在政府补贴策略下的政府、汽车企业以及消费者间的博弈关系,基于系统动力学基础运用演化博弈方法研究了政府补贴与新能源汽车产业发展的关系。从长远来看,政府补贴会削弱企业的核心竞争力,政府对汽车企业的适当惩罚会促进新能源汽车的产业发展。政府应通过建立机动补贴机制并适时增加补贴多样性,完善惩罚机制,加大对新能源汽车产业体系的建设及配套基础设施的投入,以促进新能源汽车产业的持续发展。

New energy vehicles are regarded as a key project to alleviate energy consumption and environmental problems and become a key development target of strategic emerging industries.In order to explore the game relations among the government,automobile enterprises and consumers under the government subsidy strategy,the relationship between the government subsidy and the development of new energy vehicle industry is studied by using the evolutionary game method based on the system dynamics.In the long run,the government subsidy will weaken the core competitiveness of enterprises,and the appropriate punishment of the government to automobile enterprises will promote the development of new energy vehicle industry.In order to promote the sustainable development of the new energy vehicle industry,the government should establish the mechanism of mobile subsidy,increase the variety of subsidies timely,improve the punishment mechanism,and increase the investment in the construction of the new energy vehicle industry system and the supporting infrastructure.