支农财政对农业碳排放强度的空间效应:基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

The Spatial Effect of Agricultural Finance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

作为政府支持和调控农业发展的主要手段,支农财政极大地促进了农业的发展,而农业碳排放已成为我国温室气体排放的重要组成部分。为探究支农财政与农业碳排放之间的关系及其空间机制,基于31个省级单元1997—2017年面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型进行实证研究。结果表明,各省份支农财政比例大幅提升,导致农业碳排放强度普遍下降;支农财政具有抑制农业碳排放强度的作用,且存在明显的空间溢出特征,邻近省份支农财政对本省份农业碳排放的减排效果较本省份支农财政更强;除支农财政外,经济结构、城镇化水平、城乡差距、农业发展水平、农业机械化水平和耕地占用率等因素都不同程度影响着农业排放强度,且存在着不同程度的空间溢出效应。鉴于支农财政对碳的减排效果,其可以作为一项降低农业碳排放强度的政策手段,进一步优化支农财政资金结构和统筹空间布局应成为未来支农财政工作的方向。

To support and regulate agricultural development,Chinese government is providing financial subsidies to farmers.This has greatly improved the agricultural production,and it has also an implication on greenhouse gas(GHG)emission intensities.The aim of this research is to assess the relationship between agriculture finance and GHG emission intensities.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1997-2017,the research was carried out through the Spatial Durbin Model.The results show that the proportion of provincial agricultural finance increased significantly,leading to a decline in agricultural GHG emission intensities.The agriculture-supporting finance had a reducing effect on the intensity of agricultural GHG and had obvious spatial spillover characteristics;that is to say,the effect of a neighboring province′s agriculture-supporting finance on the province′s agricultural GHG reduction is stronger than that of the province′s agriculture-supporting finances itself.In addition to agricultural finance,factors such as economic structure,urbanization level,urban-rural gap,agricultural development level,agricultural mechanization level,and cultivated land occupancy have affected the agricultural GHG intensities to varying levels,and there are spatial spillover effects to varying degrees.Because the agricultural finance has decreased the GHG intensities,it is necessary to choose this instrument to develop and promote low-carbon agriculture.In addition,optimizing the agriculture structure and coordinating the spatial distribution should also be the direction of future agricultural finance.