粤港澳大湾区气候变化及极端天气分析

Analysis of climate change and extreme weather in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

气候变化已成为当今社会经济发展中重要的决策因素,频发的极端天气灾害给人口集聚的城市带来了越来越多的安全问题。为研究粤港澳大湾区历史气候变化特征及未来演变趋势,利用香港天文台1890-2020年及大湾区内地7个站点1961年以来的气象资料,分析了大湾区平均气温及降水量的总体变化特征。以香港天文台为代表,分析了大湾区四季气候变化特征及演变规律;最后采用日尺度数据分析了大湾区极端天气(高温、干旱及暴雨)的发展趋势。分析结果表明,大湾区面临气温加速上升、干湿季节两级分化及极端天气增加的严峻局面,这对大湾区城市群的韧性发展与应急管理工作提出了更高的要求。

Climate change has become an important decision-making factor in today’s social and economic development.Extreme weather disasters have brought more and more security problems to densely populated cities.To study the historical climate change characteristics and future trends of the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area,this paper uses the meteorological data of the Hong Kong Observatory from 1890 to2020 and 7 stations in Guangdong Province since 1961 to analyze the overall characteristics of the temperature and precipitation in the Greater Bay Area.Using the observed data of the Hong Kong Observatory,the seasonal climate change characteristics and evolution laws were analyzed.Finally,the development trend of extreme weather(high temperature,drought and rainstorm)was analyzed using daily data.The analysis results show that the Greater Bay Area is facing a severe situation of accelerating temperature rise,the divergence of dry and wet seasons,and increasing extreme weather,which put forward higher requirements for the resilient development and emergency management of the urban agglomeration.