珍稀濒危树种长序榆潜在适生区及其动态变化预测

Predicting the potentially suitable distribution of the rare and endangered plant species Ulmus elongata(Ulmaceae)in China

基于MaxEnt模型,对珍稀濒危树种长序榆(Ulmus elongata)当前时期以及未来2040年SSPs126和SSPs585两种情境下的适生区进行了预测,并比较了两个时期的适生区变化。结果显示:1)AUC平均值为0.988,MaxEnt模型能很好地预测长序榆的潜在适生区;2)影响长序榆分布的环境因子主要为最冷季度降水量(55.5%)、最干季度降水量(18.5%)、海拔(16.5%)、温度季节变化(2.2%)、年平均温度(1.6%);3)长序榆当前时期主要分布在浙江省西南部以及江西、安徽、福建三省交界的区域;4)2040年,长序榆的适生区面积可能缩减,且高适生等级区域面积大幅降低。因此,加强对现有长序榆养护和管理的同时,建议在所预测的适生区内开展长序榆专项调查,并适当进行引种繁育试验。

Based on the MaxEnt model,the potentially suitable distribution of Ulmus elongata(Ulmaceae),a rare and endangered plant species of China,was predicted under two climate models(i.e.,SSPs126 and SSPs585)from current to 2040.Main results are as follows:1)The average value of AUC is 0.988,indicating the reliability of the MaxEnt model for the prediction of U.elongata habitat;2)Main environmental factors,affecting the distribution of U.elongata,are the Precipitation of Coldest Quarter(55.5%),Precipitation of Driest Quarter(18.5%),Elevation(16.5%),Temperature Seasonality(2.2%),and Precipitation of Wettest Month(2.2%);3)Currently,the potential area of U.elongata is mainly distributed in the southwestern of Zhejiang and the junction among Jiangxi,Anhui and Fujian;4)To 2040,an obvious contraction trend would happen in the suitable distribution of U.elongata,especially in higher grade suitable area.Therefore,while strengthening the conservation and management of U.elongata,the special investigation should be carried out in the predicted suitable zone to further study the survival mechanism of U.elongata and ecological factors affecting its growth.