基于风功率三参数幂律模型预测日前调频需求的调频辅助服务市场研究

Research on Frequency Modulation Ancillary Service Market Based on Three Parameter Power Law Model of Wind Power to Predict the Day-ahead Frequency Modulation Demand

由于风功率具有强随机不确定性,基于人工经验法的日前调频需求预测方法不能很好地适用于含大规模风电的系统。此外,含大规模风电系统的有功经济分配问题属于不确定优化问题范畴。因此,该文基于风功率实测数据分析结果,提出基于三参数幂律模型的日前调频需求预测方法,建立含大规模风电的日前调频辅助服务市场交易模型,并利用鲁棒优化方法对所提出的不确定性模型进行求解。最后,较为全面地对比基于经验公式法和基于三参数幂律模型预测调频需求预测方法的经济性,仿真结果表明所提出的基于三参数幂律模型的日前调频需求预测方法能显著降低系统调频成本。

Due to the strong random uncertainty of wind power,the demand forecasting method based on artificial experience is not suitable for the system with large-scale wind power.In addition,the problem of active power economic distribution with large-scale wind power system belongs to the category of uncertain optimization problem.Therefore,based on the analysis results of wind power measurement data,this paper proposed a method of forecasting the demand for frequency modulation.Also,a day-ahead frequency modulation ancillary service market transaction model with large-scale wind power based on the three-parameter power law model was established.And the robust optimization method was used to solve the proposed uncertainty model.Finally,the economics of the prediction methods based on the empirical formula and the three-parameter power law model were compared comprehensively.The simulation results show that the proposed frequency modulation demand forecasting method based on the three-parameter power law model can significantly reduce the system frequency modulation cost.