传染病风险评估方法研究进展

Progress in researches on methods for risk assessment of infectious diseases

近年来,随着传染病的防控力度加大和新发传染病的频繁发生,风险评估被广泛应用于不同种类传染病的防控中,并取得了显著效果。常用的传染病风险评估方法有专家会商法、德尔菲法、层次分析法、风险矩阵法等。针对需要重点防控的传染病,世界卫生组织(WHO)及一些相关机构制定了相应的风险评估工具,如流感、脊髓灰质炎和麻疹等。近年来,也有学者将数学或概率模型、地理信息系统或大数据应用等方法运用到传染病的风险评估中。本文针对传染病风险评估的常用方法和评估工具进行综述,以期为传染病的风险评估提供技术支撑。

In recent years, with the strengthening of prevention and control of infectious diseases and frequent occurrence of emerging infectious disease, risk assessment has been widely used in the prevention and control of different kinds of infectious diseases, and has achieved significant results. The methods frequently used in risk assessment of infectious disease include expert consultation method, Delphi method, the analytic hierarchy process, and risk level matrix analysis. World Health Organization and some relevant institutes have developed several risk assessment tools for major infectious diseases such as influenza, poliomyelitis, and measles. Recently, mathematical or probabilistic models, and geographic information systems, and big data have also been used to assess the risk of infectious diseases. The study reviewed various methods for risk assessment of infectious disease and assessment tools to provide enlightenments for risk assessment of infectious diseases.