兰州人口增加的三大效应分析:来自“七普”与“六普”的比较

Analysis on the Three Effects of Lanzhou Population Increase: From the Comparison of "the Seventh National Census" and "the Sixth National Census" Data

作为国民经济和社会发展的"晴雨表",常住人口数据直接影响国家或地区的人均GDP、人均社会消费、人均财政投入等重要指标.与甘肃省常住人口减少形成鲜明对比的是,10年间兰州市常住人口增加了74.33万人,遥遥领先其余3个人口增加的城市.究其原因,可概括为三大效应,即悠久历史地位和独特区位条件的"虹吸"效应、国家新区建设和招商引资政策的"引擎"效应、"强省会"战略和人才引进政策的"推拉"效应.未来10年,甘肃的头等大事是如何做大做强兰州.建议从构建多中心城市结构、调整产业空间布局、平衡配置基础设施和引导人口有序流动等方面进行研判及综合调控,不断优化人口空间分布,以保障城市的健康和可持续发展.

As a "barometer" of national economic and social development, resident population data has a direct impact on important indicators such as per capita GDP, per capita social consumption and per capita financial input of a country or region. In sharp contrast to the decrease in the permanent resident population in Gansu province, the permanent population of Lanzhou has increased by 743,300 in a decade, far ahead of the other three cities with increasing population. The reasons can be summarized as three "effects" :the "siphon" effect of the long historical position and unique location conditions, the "engine" effect of the construction of new areas and the policy of attracting investment, the "push and pull" effect of the strategy of "strengthening provincial capitals" and the policy of talent introduction. In the next 10 years, the top priority of Gansu is how to make Lanzhou bigger and stronger. It is suggested that the spatial distribution of population should be optimized continuously in order to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the city by building a multi-center urban structure, adjusting industrial spatial distribution, balancing infrastructure allocation and guiding orderly population flow.