上海市少儿住院互助基金保障人群的变化分析及未来五学年参保人数测算

The Changing Course of the Insured Population of Shanghai Children’s Hospitalization Mutual Aid Fund and the Calculation of the Insured Population in the Next Five Academic Years

目的:分析上海市少儿住院互助基金保障人群范围、规模和结构,测算未来5学年的参保人数。方法:采用时间序列数据分析2006—2018年上海市少儿住院互助基金保障人群规模及构成演变情况,并采用年龄移算法测算未来5学年的参保人数。结果:从规模看,2006—2018年少儿住院基金的参保人数逐步递增,从181.29万人增至229.19万人,增加了 47.90万人,增长了 26.42%。从户籍构成看,以2013年为界,非户籍儿童占比先升后降,户籍儿童占比先降后升,2019年时户籍儿童是非户籍儿童的2.36倍;从年龄构成看,6周岁以上儿童占60%~70%,0~5周岁占20%~30%。未来5学年内,0~5周岁参保儿童人数将呈下降趋势,6周岁及以上和总参保人数将呈一定程度的上升趋势。结论:上海市少儿住院互助基金需深入、细致地监测基金的收入和支出的变动状况,做好基金运行状况分析与评估。

Objective:To analyze the scope,size and structure of the beneficiary of Shanghai Children’s Hospitalization Mutual Fund,and to calculate the number of beneficiary in the next five school years.Methods:Time series data from 2006 to 2018 were used to analyze population size and composition of the beneficiary of Shanghai Children’s Hospitalization Mutual Fund,and the age shift algorithm was used to calculate the number of beneficiary in the next five academic years.Results:In terms of scale,the number of beneficiary of the Children’s hospitalization Mutual Fund increased gradually from 2006 to 2018,which increased from 1.812 9 million in2006 to 2.291 9 million in 2018,with an increase of 479 000 and the increase accounted for 26.42%.From the composition of household registration of beneficiary children,taking 2013 as the dividing line,the proportion of children without household registration increased first and then decreased,while the proportion of children with household registration decreased first and then increased.In2019,the proportion of children with household registration was 2.36 times of children without household registration.From the age composition of beneficiary,60% to 70% of them were over 6 years of age,and 20% to 30% of them aged 0~5 years old.In the next five school years,the number of beneficiary aged 0~5 would show a downward trend,while the total number of beneficiary aged 6 and above would show an upward trend to a certain extent.Conclusion:Shanghai Children’s hospitalization Mutual Fund needed comprehensive and careful supervision of the changes in its income and expenditure,clarify the sensitive population and diseases type that have a great impact on the income and expenditure of the fund,and keep thorough analysis and evaluation of the fund operation.