2015—2019年宁夏5岁以下儿童死亡率变化趋势预测及死因分析

The Mortality Rate Trend Prediction and Analysis of Causes of Death from 2015—2019 for Children under 5 Years Old in Ningxia

目的分析2015—2019年宁夏5岁以下儿童死亡原因及其发展,预测5岁儿童死亡趋势。方法采用回顾性分析,收集2015—2019年共计280983例5岁以下儿童资料,统计不同年度死亡率、死因构成及不同年龄组死亡构成;利用线性、非线性方法对5岁以下儿童死亡发展趋势建立最优拟合模型进行预测分析。结果2015—2019年5岁以下儿童平均死亡率7.95‰,新生儿、婴儿、1~4岁儿童平均死亡率分别为3.82‰、5.89‰、2.06‰;年龄别死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(P均<0.001)。2015—2019年5岁以下儿童死因顺位前5位分别为早产或低出生体重、出生窒息、先天性心脏病、肺炎、其他先天异常。结论宁夏5岁以下儿童死亡率2015—2019年呈逐年下降趋势,但新生儿死亡率所占比重仍然较大。

Objective Analyze the causes and development of death of children under 5 years old in Ningxia from 2015 to 2019,and predict the death trend of children under 5 years old. Methods 280983 children’s death information was collected from 2015-2019,the mortality rate,constitution of causes of death and its differences of mortality rate among different agegroup were analysized. The trend of causes of death for children under 5 years old was predicted by application of liner and non-linear methods and the best fitting model was set up. Results The average mortality rate was 7.95‰ from 2015 to 2019 for children under 5 years old in Ningxia. In different age groups,the maortality rate was 3.82‰、5.89‰、2.06‰ for neonatus,infant and 1-4 year old respectively. The age-specific mortality showed a downward trend(P<0.001). The top 5 causes of death were preterm and low birth weight,birth asphyxia,congenital heart disease,pneumonia and other congenital anomalies. Conclusion The mortality of children under 5 years old in Ningxia showed a downward trend year by year from 2015 to 2019,but the proportion of neonatal mortality is still large.