是“自强不息”还是“仰人鼻息”?——基于供给侧视角的产能利用率与企业出口决策研究

Is It“Self-improvement”or“Relying on Others”?Research on Capacity Utilization and Enterprise Export Decision Based on Supply Side Perspective

鉴于目前复杂多变的国际政治经济局势,以往“仰人鼻息式”的出口增长模式已无出路。基于供给侧视角,将产能利用率纳入企业出口决策的分析框架,并利用中国工业行业数据进行回归分析。实证研究显示,产能利用率的提升会显著增强企业的出口意愿。也就是说,企业通过供给侧的“自强不息”可以有效促进出口增长。分地区来看,产能利用率对企业出口的推动作用呈现“东中部高、西部低”的特征;分阶段来看,2008年前后这一推动作用保持相对稳定。其原因一方面是产能利用率的提升能够增强企业的出口获利能力,因而更愿意扩大出口;另一方面,中国产能过剩具有突出的竞争性产能过剩特征,企业对利用出口化解产能过剩的内在动力不足。研究结论为构建双循环新发展格局,特别是为以国内促国际方面的工作提供重要的理论支撑和实施路径。

In view of the complicated and changeable international political and economic situation,there is no way out for the export growth model of“relying on others”in the past.Based on the supply side perspective,this paper brings capacity utilization into the analysis framework of enterprises'export decision-making,and uses China's industrial data for regression analysis.Empirical research shows that capacity utilization improvement will significantly enhance export willingness of enterprises.In other words,enterprises can effectively promote export growth through“self-improvement”on the supply side.Regionally,capacity utilization has the characteristics of“high in the eastern and central areas and low in the western areas”in promoting the export of enterprises.Research in stages shows that the driving role of capacity utilization remained relatively stable around 2008.On the one hand,the improvement of capacity utilization can enhance profitability of enterprises'export,which makes enterprises more willing to expand exports,and on the other hand,China's overcapacity is characterized by competitive overcapacity,which makes enterprises lack of internal motivation to use exports to resolve overcapacity.The conclusions provide important theoretical support and implementation path for construction of the new development pattern of dual circulation,especially the promotion of international circulation by domestic circulation.