“一带一路”沿线省域金融生态系统协同演化机制与水平差异——基于哈肯模型的实证分析

Synergistic Evolution Mechanism and the Synergistic Differences of Financial Ecosystem in Provinces of“the Belt and Road”Area in China——The Empirical Analysis Based on Haken Model

为探究“一带一路”沿线省域金融生态系统协同演化机制,本文在引入协同学理论对系统协同演化机理进行分析的基础上,构建哈肯模型,利用2008~2019年“一带一路”沿线省域的基础数据,从子系统和次子系统层面进行实证,进一步探析沿线省域金融生态系统协同水平差异。结果表明:在子系统层面,金融生态环境是系统动态演化的序参量,金融生态环境的改善对金融主体发展具有协同增效应。在次子系统层面,金融主体子系统动态演化的序参量是银行业;金融生态环境子系统动态演化的序参量是对外开放程度、人文环境和诚信文化,并且对外开放程度与人文环境、诚信文化存在竞争关系,人文环境和诚信文化呈协作关系,3个序参量通过合作与竞争共同主宰金融生态环境的有序演化。在此期间,沿线省域金融生态系统协同水平差异较小且呈缩小态势,同时具有阶段性特征。

To explore the synergistic evolution mechanism of the provincial financial ecosystem in“the Belt and Road”,the paper makes an introduction to the synergetic theory to analyze the system synergistic evolution mechanism.The Haken model is constructed and the basic data of provinces from 2008~2019 are taken to do an empirical analysis of the subsystem and secondary subsystem,then to further explore the synergistic differences.At the subsystem level,the results show that the financial ecological environment is the order parameter in the dynamic evolution of financial ecosystem of“the Belt and Road”area and there are syner⁃gies between the improvement of financial ecological environment and the development of financial subjects.About the secondary subsystem level,the banking industry is the order parameter in the dynamic evolution of the financial subject subsystem,and the order parameters of the financial ecological environment subsystem are the opening level,the culture environment and the integrity culture.The opening level has a competitive relationship with both of the the cultural environment and integrity culture while there is a cooperative relationship between the culture environment and honest culture.The order parameters dominate the orderly evolution of the system through cooperation and competition.In the span,there is only a nice discrepancy in the synergistic differences of China's provinces in“the Belt and Road”area,and the difference gap is narrowing with different characteristics in different perio⁃ds.