碳排放权交易政策对碳生产率的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Carbon Emission Trading Policy on Carbon Productivity

碳排放权交易政策是我国实现双碳目标的重要政策工具之一,对碳生产率的提升具有重要作用。本文基于我国30个省(区、市)2006~2019年的面板数据,运用双重差分法研究碳排放权交易政策对碳生产率的影响效果,同时利用中介效应模型分析碳排放权交易政策对碳生产率的传导机制。研究结果显示:(1)实施碳排放权交易政策显著提高碳生产率,实现“减排促经”效果,并且随时间推移,这种正向影响逐渐增强;(2)中介效应分析发现,碳排放权交易政策通过降低能源强度、提高技术创新水平和产业结构高级化水平的方式影响碳生产率的提高。基于研究结论,本文建议从进一步完善碳交易政策、降低能源强度、加快绿色技术创新和促进产业结构高级化等方面助力碳生产率提升。

Carbon emission trading policy is one of the important policy tools to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China,and this policy plays an important role in the improvement of carbon productivity.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019,this paper studies the impact of carbon emission trading policies on carbon productivity by using the difference of differences method,and analyzes the transmission mechanism of carbon emission trading policies on carbon productivi⁃ty by using the mediating effect model.The results show that:(1)the implementation of carbon emission trading policy can signifi⁃cantly improve carbon productivity and achieve the effect of“emission reduction and economic promotion”,and this positive effect is gradually enhanced over time.(2)The mediating effect analysis shows that carbon emission trading policies affect the improve⁃ment of carbon productivity by reducing energy intensity,improving the level of technological innovation and upgrading the level of industrial structure.Based on the research conclusions,this paper proposes to improve carbon productivity by further improving car⁃bon trading policies,reducing energy intensity,accelerating green technology innovation and promoting the advanced industrial structure.