能源高质量发展下中国电力供需格局演变趋势

Evolving Tendency of Electric Supply and Demand Pattern under the Circumstances of High-Quality Energy Development

为应对气候变化,世界各国都在加快能源转型,习近平总书记提出了“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略和“碳达峰、碳中和”愿景,要求全力推动能源高质量发展,这将对中国电力供需格局产生深远影响。首先,提炼能源高质量发展的内涵、特征;其次,从消费侧、供给侧、技术、体制等角度研判能源高质量发展下电力行业的转型发展方向;最后,通过构建多区域“能源-经济-电力”分析预测模型体系,从电力需求、电力供应、跨区电力流、电力系统形态、电力市场交易等方面研究中国中长期电力供需格局的演变特征。

To fight against climate change,countries around the world are accelerating the energy transition.General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the“four revolutions,one cooperation”new strategy for energy security and the“carbon emission peaking,carbon neutrality”vision,demanding all efforts to promote high-quality energy development.They will have a profound impact on China’s electric supply and demand pattern.Firstly,this paper refines the connotation and characteristics of high-quality energy development.Secondly,we make the judgment about the transformation direction of the power industry from the perspectives of electric demand,electric supply,technology and market.Finally,through the construction of a multi-regional“energy–economy–power”model system,we analyze the evolving tendency of electric supply and demand pattern from the aspects of electric demand,electric supply,trans-regional power flow,power system pattern,and power market transaction.