中国省际和产业间人力资本错配状况及趋势——基于面板数据的统计分析

The Condition and Trend of Human Capital Mismatch Among Provinces and Industries in China:An Statistical Analysis Based on Panel Data

为把握中国人力资本错配状况,文章构造省级和产业级面板数据及构建人力资本错配系数,研究发现:东部和东北地区人力资本配置不足而中西部则配置过度,但市场化进程总体改善了全国错配;“振兴东北老工业基地”和“西部大开发”战略均改善了当地的人力资本错配,但中部地区仍有待解决;全国人力资本错配呈现先略微上升后持续下降趋势,这与行政垄断和劳动力流动壁垒的强度有关;近年来,一产和二产的人力资本错配显示出我国正面临农民工“返乡潮”和经济“脱实向虚”趋势。基于上述发现,政府要促进劳动力转移,在全国范围内实现“雁阵”型产业布局,尤其要充分利用中部地区的人力资本储备。

To understand the mismatch of human capital in China,provincial and industrial panel data as well as human capital mismatch coefficient have been constructed.The study discovers that the allocation of human capital in the eastern and northeast regions is insufficient while that in the central and western regions is excessive,but the marketization process has generally improved the national mismatch.The strategies of"revitalizing the former industrial base in northeastern China"and"China's west-forward development"have improved the human capital mismatch,but that in central region still needs to be solved.The human capital misallocation in China has increased slightly and decreased continuously,which is related to the intensity of administrative monopoly and labor mobility barriers.In recent years,the mismatch of human capital between primary and secondary industries shows that China is facing the the tide of migrant workers returning home and the trend of economy from reality to emptiness.Based on the above,the government is expected to promote labor transfer,realize the"goose array"industrial layout nationwide,and especially make full use of the human capital reserve in central region.