全球价值链视角下的中德经贸依赖关系

Economic Interdependence between China and Germany:the Perspective of Global Value Chains

中国和德国是全球价值链上的核心国家,并互为重要贸易伙伴,但新冠疫情给全球供应链带来了重构冲击,两国经贸合作的不确定性增加。基于全球价值链理论对出口增加值进行核算后可以看出,中国在全球价值链的位置快速提升,成为仅次于德国的世界第二大出口增加值来源地。中国价值链的独立性持续增强,而德国在上游和下游对中国的依赖度不断提高。出于经济安全考量,德国企业尝试分散供应链布局,或将在华不具有比较优势的产业转移至其他经济体,但这并未改变两国以互补性为主导的经贸关系,由于核心制造业产业链高度融合,中德经济无法"脱钩"。当前非经济因素干扰经济议题,德国强调价值观和意识形态差异,视中国为"制度性竞争者",经贸关系作为中德关系"压舱石"作用受到限制,但鉴于两国趋于平衡的经济依赖关系,德国对华政策转向并不会对中德经贸合作的基本面产生根本影响。随着两国相互依赖关系深度和广度的提升,中德共同经济利益网络不断扩大,经贸合作依然是中德关系的重要纽带。

As important trade partners,China and Germany are key countries in global value chains(GVCs).However,due to the shock COVID-19 has brought to GVCs,there is now more uncertainty in Sino-German economic and trade cooperation.Based on the theory of global value chains,it is found that China has rapidly improved its position in GVCs,becoming the second largest source of value added in exports after Germany.Meanwhile,the independence of China’s value chain continues to rise,while Germany’s dependence on China is increasing in both the upstream and downstream parts of GVCs.Out of economic security concerns,German companies have attempted to diversify the supply chains or relocate their industries in China that are noncompetitive to other economies.But this has not changed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship and it is impossible for the two countries to"decouple"given the high interdependence between their core manufacturing sectors.The stabilizing role of the trade relationship is now being limited due to non-economic factors as the German government emphasizes values and ideological conflicts,and views China as a systemic competitor.But this will not have a fundamental impact on economic and trade cooperation between both countries thanks to their more balanced economic interdependence.As this interdependence continues to grow in depth and scope,economic interests between China and Germany will keep expanding,and economic and trade cooperation remains an important part in China-Germany relations.