新冠疫情冲击下投资者信心与宏观经济政策作用效果

Covid-19 Epidemic,Investor Confidence and the Effect of Macroeconomic Policy

定量分析新冠肺炎疫情冲击下经济政策对金融市场的稳定作用,有利于政府有效应对重大公共事件对金融市场的冲击。首先,基于理论模型分析得出新冠疫情对市场投资者信心冲击遵循负面舆情路径;其次,建立自回归条件异方差模型实证检验疫情对投资者信心冲击效应的大小与特征;最后,实证检验疫情冲击下,政府采取的财政政策与货币政策对投资者信心的稳定作用。实证研究结果表明,新冠疫情对境外投资者信心的冲击更大;对境内投资者信心冲击效应具有异质性,机构投资者并没有发挥市场稳定器的作用;疫情对高风险偏好投资者信心的冲击更强。政府采取的财政政策与货币政策均能显著降低疫情对投资者信心的冲击,且市场稳定效应具有前高后低的阶段性特征。

Quantitative analysis of the Covid-19 outbreak in the economic policy of the stability of the financial market role,is conducive to the effective response of the government to major public events on the financial market impact.Firstly,based on theoretical model analysis,it is concluded that the path of Covid-19′s confidence impact on market investors is a negative public opinion path;Secondly,an autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is established to test the size and characteristics of the impact of Covid-19 on investor confidence;Finally,an empirical test is made on the effect of fiscal and monetary policies adopted by the government on investor confidence.The empirical results show that Covid-19′s impact on foreign investors′confidence is greater than domestic investors;and the impact effect of domestic investors is heterogeneous.Institutional investors do not play the role of market stabilizers;the impact of Covid-19 on the confidence of investors with high risk preference is stronger.The government′s fiscal policy and monetary policy can significantly reduce the impact of Covid-19 on investor confidence,and the stability effect has the characteristics of high in the front and low in the back.