河北省赵州雪梨气候品质评估技术研究

Study on Evaluation Model for Climate Quality of Zhaozhou Xuehua Pear in Hebei

【目的】探明中国地理标志保护产品赵州雪梨的品质对气候条件的响应,为赵州雪梨的气候品质评估提供技术参考。【方法】利用赵县1990—2018年赵州雪梨品质数据及气候数据,通过相关分析、逐步回归、专家决策及加权求和方法,建立适用于赵州雪梨气候品质评估的综合评价模型,并通过2019年赵州雪梨品质抽检对模型进行评估应用检验。【结果】通过气象适宜度评价模型、气象灾损度评价模型和生产管理条件评价模型加权求和,构建赵州雪梨气候品质综合评估模型为W=0.8(E-D)+0.2M;赵州雪梨气候品质等级划分为特优(0.9≤W≤1)、优(0.8≤W<0.9)和一般(W<0.8)3个等级;模型评估2019年赵州雪梨气候品质为特优等级(W=0.97),与实际抽测结果相符。【结论】2019年赵州雪梨品质模型预测与实测结果基本一致,品质评价均为特优等级,评估模型具有较高客观性,适用于赵州雪梨气候品质评估。

【Objective】The response of climate conditions to quality of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear,a geographical indication protection product,is studied to provide a technical reference for climate quality evaluation of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear.【Method】The comprehensive evaluation model for climate quality assessment of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear is established by the methods of correlation analysis,stepwise regression,expert judgment and weighted sum based on the quality data of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear and climate data in Zhao County from 1990 to 2018.The model is evaluated and detected by randorn inspection of Zhaozhou xuehua peat of 2019.【Result】The comprehensive evaluation model[W=0.8(E-D)+0.2 M]for climate quality assessment of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear is established by the weighted sum of meteorological suitability assessment model,meteorological disaster loss assessment model and production management assessment model.The climate quality grade of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear can be divided into three grades of special grade(0.9≤W≤1),good grade(0.8≤W<0.9)and common grade(W<0.8).The climate quality of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear is evaluated as special grade by the established assessment model in 2019,which accords with the actual test results.【Conclusion】The climate quality result of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear evaluated by the established comprehensive assessment model of climate quality accords with the actual test result basically in 2019,which proves that the established comprehensive assessment model of climate quality with the higher objectivity can be applied in actual evaluation of climate quality of Zhaozhou Xuehua pear.