丝绸之路经济带生产网络与生态环境耦合的系统动力学研究

System Dynamics on the Coupling of Production Network and Ecological Environment in the Silk Road Economic Belt

为探索丝绸之路经济带生产网络与生态环境耦合演进的内在机制和规律。以复杂性科学为视角,运用系统动力学方法构建了丝绸之路经济带生产网络与生态环境耦合的系统动力学模型并进行仿真分析。阐释了自然演进型发展模式、生产网络加速型发展模式和生态环境保护型发展模式三种情景下,耦合系统的动态演化过程和演进规律;并揭示出丝绸之路经济带生产网络与生态环境的耦合发展是以生产网络的跨越式发展为前提的。在“一带一路”倡议的驱动下,不断推进丝绸之路经济带生产网络发展演进进程,是促进丝绸之路经济带高质量可持续发展的有效路径。

In order to explore the internal mechanism and laws of the evolution of the Silk Road Economic Belt production networks with ecological environment in the perspective of complexity science.System dynamics method is used to build the coupled system dynamic model,and simulation analysis is conducted.The coupling system dynamic evolution process and evolution rules are explained under three different scenarios:the evolution of natural development model,production network to accelerate development mode and development mode of ecological environment.It is found that the Silk Road Economic Belt production network and the coupling development of ecological environment is the premise of the evolution of the development of production networks.Driven by the Belt and Road Initiative,Continuously promoting the development and evolution of the production network of the Silk Road Economic Belt is an effective way to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of the Silk Road Economic Belt.