老年髋部骨折患者治疗后深静脉血栓形成的危险因素分析及模型预测

Risk factors analysis and model prediction of deep venous thrombosis after treatment in elderly patients with hip fracture

目的探讨老年髋部骨折患者治疗后深静脉血栓形成的危险因素及模型预测。方法收集2020年1月至2021年1月在北京市积水潭医院治疗的128例老年髋部骨折患者的临床资料。根据治疗后深静脉血栓形成的发生情况进行分组,对照组(n=97,未发生深静脉血栓形成)和病例组(n=31,出现深静脉血栓形成)。老年髋部骨折患者治疗后深静脉血栓形成的影响因素分析采用Logistic回归分析;模型预测的符合程度采用Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)检验。结果受伤至入院时间间隔越长、Caprini评分越高、系统免疫炎性指数(SⅡ)升高是老年髋部骨折患者治疗后发生深静脉血栓形成的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。H-L检验P>0.05,表明预测结果与实际结果间差异无统计学意义,模型具有较好的预测符合程度。结论受伤至入院时间间隔越长、Caprini评分越高、SⅡ升高是老年髋部骨折治疗后发生深静脉血栓形成的独立危险因素。

Objective To explore the risk factors analysis and model prediction of deep venous thrombosis in elderly patients with hip fracture after treatment.Method The clinical data of 128 elderly hip fracture patients in Beijing Jishuitan Hospital from January 2020 to January 2021 were collected.According to the occurrence of deep venous thrombosis after treatment,they were divided into control group(n=97,no deep venous thrombosis)and case group(n=31,deep venous thrombosis).Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of deep venous thrombosis in elderly patients with hip fracture after treatment.The degree of agreement predicted by the model was tested by Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test.Result The longer the interval between injury and admission,the higher the Caprini score,and the increase in systemic immune-inflammatory index(SII)expression were independent risk factors for deep venous thrombosis after treatment in elderly patients with hip fractures(P<0.05).H-L test P>0.05,indicating that the difference between the predicted result and the actual result was not statistically significant,and the model had a good degree of prediction coincidence.Conclusion The longer the interval between injury and admission,the higher the Caprini score,and the increased SII expression level are independent risk factors for deep venous thrombosis after treatment of elderly hip fractures.