多子女家庭和独生子女家庭消费影响因素的差异研究

Differences in Factors Affecting Household Consumption Between Multiple-Child Families and One-Child Families

“计划生育”政策调整背景下,我国已经且将持续出现拥有多个子女的家庭,多子女家庭消费的影响因素变化值得关注。文章基于2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)微观家庭数据,构建家庭结构和消费的指标,利用Tobit模型和邹检验的方法,研究了家庭消费影响因素在独生子女家庭和多子女家庭中的差异,实证结果表明:(1)子女数量增加会促进家庭消费的增加。(2)相较于独生子女家庭,家庭结构因素对多子女家庭消费的影响变化体现为第二个孩子年龄增长显著抑制多子女家庭的消费,但子女的未婚姻状况对家庭消费不再具有抑制作用。(3)独生子女家庭和多子女家庭收入对消费的回归系数具有显著性差异,体现出多子女家庭消费倾向的改变。(4)分组实证结果表明,后代为男性、未婚对家庭消费的抑制作用在农村家庭以及租赁住房的家庭中表现更明显。结合多子女家庭消费的新特点,从减免生育费用,加强教育、医疗保障等三个方面为多子女家庭消费提出政策建议。

This paper studies the differences in factors affecting household consumption between one-child families and multiple-child families,based on the micro-family data from the China Family Finance Survey in 2017.The results of Tobit model and Chow test imply some conclusions.First,there is a positive relationship between the number of dependent children in family and the household consumption.Second,the negative relationship between age of the second child and the household consumption as well as the failure of marital characteristics illustrate that the influence of family structure characteristics on the household consumption has changed to some extent in multiple-child families,compared with one-child families.Third,the regression coefficient of income to consumption in one-child families is significantly different from that of multiple-child families,reflecting the change in the consumption tendency of multiple-child families.Last,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of male and unmarried offspring on household consumption is more pronounced in rural households and families without housing.