现代化经济体系:指标评价体系、地区差距及时空演进

Modern Economic System: Evaluation Index System,Regional Inequality and Temporal-Spatial Evolution

文章在把握现代化经济体系科学内涵和基本框架的基础上,从动力体系、资源配置、产业体系和增长质量四个维度选取64个指标构建现代化经济体系指标评价体系,采用时空极差熵权法测度中国2013-2018年31个省份的现代化经济体系发展水平,运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和时空收敛模型分别从南北方和东西部视角对中国现代化经济体系发展时空分布格局与演进趋势进行分析。研究表明,中国现代化经济体系发展水平呈现上升趋势,不同地区发展水平差异显著,南方地区发展水平与速度均高于北方地区;东部地区发展水平最高,西部地区最低;中部地区发展速度较快,东北地区较慢;北京和上海构成了现代化经济体系发展第一梯队。文章揭示了中国现代化经济体系发展演进趋势,为加快现代化经济体系建设、推动高质量发展提供参考。

Based on grasping the scientific connotation and basic framework of the modern economic system,this paper selects 52 indicators from four parts:motive force system,resource allocation,industrial system and growth quality to build an evaluation index system of modern economic system,and uses time-space range entropy weigh to measure the development level of the modern economic system of 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2018,using Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation,and temporal-spatial convergence model to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution pattern and evolution trend of the development of modern economic system in China from the perspectives of different regions. The results show that the development level of China’s modern economic system is showing an upward trend,and the development level of different regions differs significantly. The development level and speed of the southern region is higher than that of the northern region. The eastern region has the highest level of development,followed by the central and northeastern regions,and the western region has the lowest level of development. The central region develops faster,followed by the western and eastern regions,and the northeastern region is slower. The development level of Beijing and Shanghai is much higher than that of other provinces,forming the first echelon of the development of modern economic system. During the sample period,the overall regional gap shows a trend of narrowing. The gap between the northern region and the southern region is constantly narrowing,and the gap between the regions first narrows and then widens. In the four major regions,the disparity in descending order is east,west,northeast,and central,and the disparity among regions is in descending order of east-west,east-northeast,east-middle,middlewest,west-northeast,and middle-northeast. The gap between the northern region and the southern region mainly comes from the gap within the region,and the four major regional gaps mainly come from the gap between regions. The center of the density function of the development level of modern economic system in China and various regions shifts to the right,but its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are different. The eastern region shows a significant trend of multi-polarization,while the southern region shows a slight trend of polarization. The number of wave crests in other regions is all single peaks,and there is no polarization phenomenon. The development performance of modern economic system in China and various regions is in a divergent state. The divergence rate in the later period of China is higher than that in the early period. The divergence rate in the north-south region shows an upward trend,and the overall divergence rate in the south is higher than that in the north. The divergence speed of the four major regions is sorted from high to low into the western,central,northeastern and eastern regions. The polarization trend in the east and west regions is more pronounced in the later period of the investigation,the development of the central region is relatively stable,and the divergence rate of the northeast region shows a downward trend. This paper measures the development level of the modern economic system of various provinces in different periods,reveals the development and evolution trend of modern economic system in China,and provides foundations for accelerating the construction of a modern economic system and promoting high-quality development.