构建开放条件下中国天然气安全保障体系的路径

Building paths of China's natural gas security guarantee system under opening-up conditions

中国在面向碳中和的能源绿色转型过程中,面临天然气消费量持续增加而国内天然气供给能力不足的问题,国际合作成为保障中国天然气安全的重要途径。为此基于资源、跨境通道、市场等视角,系统评估了新时期中国天然气的安全形势,并全面分析了进口天然气供应存在的主要问题,最后基于国家总体安全观与能源安全新战略及新发展理念要求,从统筹内外部安全、构建国内国际双循环新发展格局的角度,提出了打造开放条件下天然气安全保障体系的主要路径。研究结果表明:①加大与资源大国的合作深度与利益依存度,确保海外资源的稳定性;②打造一批核心资源国,与俄罗斯、土库曼斯坦、伊朗等资源国之间构建运力足、多元化程度高、可选择性好的战略大通道;③丰富进口气源,构建中巴通道、完善中缅通道,将其打造成获取中东、北非天然气的“双引擎”;④激活中国的过境国潜力,提升通道国际属性,构建中朝韩日管网、中缅孟印管道,将中国打造成俄罗斯中亚天然气出口到东北亚、南亚的通道国;⑤向外企开放中国天然气销售市场,将国内需求市场打造成中国与资源国合作的新空间,提高双方的利益关联;⑥吸引外企加入中国气田开发与基础设施建设,提升中国天然气可及性与应急能力。结论认为,所提出的开放条件下天然气安全保障体系的主要路径是实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要举措,必将加速中国能源的绿色转型。

In the process of green energy transformation towards carbon neutrality in China,natural gas consumption increases continuously,but domestic supply capacity is not sufficient,so international cooperation is an important way to ensure China's natural gas security.From the perspective based on resource,cross-border channel and market,this paper systematically evaluates the security situation of natural gas in China in the new period and comprehensively analyzes the main problems in the supply of imported natural gas.Finally,based on the national overall security concept and the new strategy and development concept of energy security,it is proposed to build main paths of natural gas security guarantee system under open conditions from the perspective of planning internal and external security as a whole and constructing a new development pattern with domestic and foreign dual cycles.And the following suggestions are proposed.First,deepen the cooperation with major resource countries and increase the degree of interest dependence to ensure the stability of overseas resources.Second,cultivate a number of core resource countries and build major strategic channels of sufficient capacity,high diversification degree and good alternative between China and resource countries,such as Russia,Turkmenistan and Iran.Third,diversify gas import sources,build the China-Pakistan channel,improve the China-Myanmar channel and develop them into"dual engines"to import natural gas from the Middle East and the North Africa.Fourth,activate China's potential as a transit country,improve the international attributes of channels,build the pipeline network between China,Korean Peninsula and Japan and construct the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline,so as to develop China into a channel country for the export of natural gas from Russian and the Central Asian to the Northeast Asia and the South Asia.Fifth,open-up China's natural gas market to foreign companies and develop domestic demand market into a new space of cooperation between China and resource countries so as to increase their interest interdependence.Sixth,encourage foreign companies to take part in China's gas field development and infrastructure construction and improve China's natural gas accessibility and emergency response capability.In conclusion,the proposed main paths of natural gas security guarantee system under opening-up conditions are the important measures to realize carbon peak and carbon neutrality,which will inevitably speed up the green energy transformation in China.