发达国家2020年前减排承诺进展分析

Progress Analysis on Pre-2020 Mitigation Pledges of Developed Parties

在全球气候治理中,2020年是一个关键时间点,除土耳其外所有《公约》附件一缔约方(发达国家)都提出了目标年为2020年的全经济范围温室气体减排目标。在各国都放眼30年—40年后的碳中和时代时,对发达国家2020年前减排承诺的履行情况进行评估具有深远意义。本文发现,在《公约》进程开启30年后,2019年发达国家整体比1990年减排约15%,与科学要求相去甚远;同时,经济转型国家的减排贡献要远远高于传统意义上的发达国家,部分发达国家排放甚至不降反升。在疫情影响下,大部分发达国家都能实现2020年减排目标,包括美国,但这并不具有现实意义。研究还发现,2005年以后,多个发达国家(部分欧盟成员国+美国)排放下行趋势明显,在一定程度上表明其减缓政策效应正在逐步加速显现。

2020 is a key time-point in global climate governance,by which all Annex Ⅰ parties(excluding Turkey)to UNFCCC committed economy-wide mitigation targets.When all countries shift to carbon neutrality 30-40 years later,it is critical to have an in-depth review on progress of these commitments which refers to pre-2020.This paper finds:in 30 years after UNFCCC processes were kicked off,the developed parties,as a whole,achieved 15% emission reduction from 1990 to 2019,far below the level required by sciences.Meanwhile,the Economy-Transitio n countries contributed much more than conventional developed ones did,part of which still saw their emission growing instead of declining.Because of the Pandemic,most developed countries will fulfill their pledges up to 2020,including United States,however,these achievement is not meaningful.It also finds,positively,emissions from a dozen of developed countries(part of EU member states and US)declined significantly after 2005.This may show that the effectiveness of mitigation policies begin to accelerate.