2017-2019年苏州市大气主要污染物PM_(2.5)与人群死亡风险的关系

Relationship between atmospheric pollutants PM_(2.5) and human death risk in Suzhou City from 2017-2019

目的选择苏州市大气中首要污染物细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))等作为本次健康风险评估的主要污染物,评估PM_(2.5)污染对人群非意外总死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡以及循环系统疾病死亡的急性健康风险。方法收集2017年1月1日—2019年12月31日常住人口全死因个案资料,采用时间序列广义相加泊松回归模型,在控制时间趋势和气象因素等混杂因素的基础上分析苏州市PM_(2.5)、可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particulate matter,PM_(10))、NO_(2)、臭氧8 h(O_(3)-8h)、CO、SO_(2)等污染物暴露与人群的死亡风险关系。结果当参照浓度为35μg/m^(3)时,2017—2019年期间苏州PM_(2.5)急性效应造成的死亡人数分别为460(95%CI:197~725)例、469(95%CI:200~741)例和353(95%CI:151~556)例;PM_(2.5)对苏州市非意外死亡人数的影响存在滞后效应表现。对于单日死亡效应,PM_(2.5)滞后效应表现为先降低再缓慢升高的趋势,单日滞后3天(lag3)的效应最大,即滞后3天的PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m3,引起非意外死亡的相对危险度(RR)值为1.0034(95%CI:1.0010~1.0055)。结论2017—2019年苏州市大气中PM_(2.5)浓度与居民超额死亡风险显著相关。

Objective Selecting the fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)),the primary pollutant in the atmosphere of Suzhou City,as the main pollutant in this health risk assessment,to assess the acute health risk of PM_(2.5) to non-accidental total death,death from respiratory diseases and death from circulatory diseases.Methods The data on all cause of death cases of residents from January1,2017 to December 31,2019,were collected.Time series generalized additive Poisson regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the exposure of PM_(2.5),inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10)),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),8 hours ozone average concentration(O_(3)-8h),carbon monoxide(CO),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))in Suzhou City and human death risk after controlling for confounding factors such as time trends and meteorological factors.Results When the reference concentration was 35μg/m^(3),460(95%CI:197-725),469(95%CI:200-741)and 353(95%CI:151-556)deaths were caused by the acute effects of PM_(2.5) in Suzhou during 2017-2019.There was a lag effect of PM_(2.5) on the number of non-accidental deaths in Suzhou City.As for the single-day death effect,the lag effect of PM_(2.5) showed a trend of first decreasing and then slowly increasing.Lag3 effect was the largest,that is,the relative risk(RR)of non-accidental death was 1.0034(95%CI:1.0010-1.0055)for every 10 g/m3 increase in PM_(2.5) concentration after 3-day lag.Conclusion From 2017-2019,the concentration of PM_(2.5) in the atmosphere in Suzhou City is significantly correlated with the excess death risk of residents.