2016-2019年镇江市大气颗粒物与儿科呼吸系统门诊人次的关系研究

Study on relationship between ambient particulate matter and outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases in Zhenjiang City from 2016-2019

目的分析镇江市大气颗粒物[可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particulate matter,PM_(10))和细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))]对儿科呼吸系统门诊人次的影响。方法收集2016年1月1日—2019年12月31日镇江市大气颗粒物PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每日质量浓度数据、气象数据以及每日儿科呼吸系统门诊人次数据。采用基于广义相加模型的时间序列分析方法评估大气颗粒物对镇江市儿科呼吸系统门诊人次的影响,采用超额危险度评价大气颗粒物每上升10μg/m^(3)儿科呼吸系统门诊人次的增加量。结果PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)对儿科呼吸系统门诊人次的影响存在滞后效应和累积滞后效应,PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)分别在滞后10天(lag10)和4天(lag4)时效应最大,PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每升高10μg/m^(3)儿科呼吸系统门诊人次分别增加0.45%(95%CI:0.25%~0.64%)和0.62%(95%CI:0.36%~0.88%)。PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)对儿科呼吸系统门诊人次的滞后效应可持续至12 d。结论镇江市大气颗粒物与儿科呼吸系统门诊人次升高显著相关。

Objective To study the effect of ambient particulate matter[inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10))and fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))]on outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases in Zhenjiang City.Methods Daily mass concentration data of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5),meteorological factors and daily outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases in Zhenjiang City from January 1,2016 to December 31,2019 were collected.A time-series analysis based on generalized additive model was applied to evaluate the effect of ambient particulate matter on outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases in Zhenjiang City.Excess risk was used to evaluate the increase of outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases with each increase of 10μg/m^(3) ambient particulate matter.Results There were lag effect and cumulative lag effect of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) on outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases.PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) showed the largest effect on the 10 th day(lag 10)and the 4 th day(lag 4)respectively.The outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases respectively increased by 0.45%(95%CI:0.25%-0.64%)and 0.62%(95%CI:0.36%-0.88%)with an increase of 10μg/m^(3) in PM_(10) and PM_(2.5).The lag effect of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) on outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases could last for 12 days.Conclusion The ambient particulate matter is significantly associated with the increase of outpatient visits of children respiratory diseases in Zhenjiang City.