RCEP生效对宏观经济和制造业发展的影响研究——基于GTAP模型分析方法

The Impact of RCEP Agreement on Macroeconomic and Manufacturing Development Research——Analysis Method Based on GTAP Model

本文利用2001—2019年RCEP各国贸易数据对中国与伙伴国的制造业贸易规模、竞争性和互补性进行分析,通过RCEP(区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)关税承诺表,计算协定生效后各国农业、矿业、各类制造业的关税水平,进而采用GTAP模拟RCEP协定对各国宏观经济和制造业发展的影响。结果表明:中国与RCEP伙伴国制造业贸易合作稳步发展,贸易竞争性和互补性并存。RCEP生效可推动中国、东盟、韩国等成员国经贸增长,加快居民福祉增速,同时也会对俄罗斯、印度、加拿大带来一定负面冲击。RCEP生效将显著扩大伙伴国制造业贸易规模,促进中国优势制造产业的进一步发展。基于以上实证结果,中国应积极利用RCEP中心和枢纽地位,推动成员国之间分工协作并与欧美发达国家展开良性互动,打造亚太地区制造业集聚区,推动后疫情时代中国制造业产业链的稳定发展和价值链的延伸。

Based on the trade data of RCEP countries from 2001 to 2019,this paper analyzes the scale,competitiveness and complementarity of China’s manufacturing trade with its partner countries.Based on the tariff commitment table of RCEP,this paper calculates the tariff levels of agriculture,mining and various manufacturing industries of each country after the entry into force of the RCEP.Then GTAP is used to simulate the impact of RCEP agreement on macroeconomic and manufacturing development.The results show that the manufacturing trade cooperation between China and RCEP partners develops steadily,and the trade competitiveness and complementarity coexist.The entry into force of the RCEP will effectively promote the economic and trade growth of China,ASEAN,the Republic of Korea and other member states and speed up the growth of people’s well-being.At the same time,it will also have a certain negative impact on Russia,India and Canada.The entry into force of the RCEP will significantly expand the scale of manufacturing trade in partner countries and promote the further development of China’s competitive manufacturing industries.Based on the above empirical results,China should actively make use of the RCEP’s position as the center and hub,promote the division of labor and cooperation among member countries and carry out positive interaction with developed countries in Europe and the United States,build a manufacturing agglomeration area in the Asia-Pacific region,and promote the stable development of China’s manufacturing industry chain and the extension of the value chain in the post-epidemic era.