地区人口与经济增长关系的相对差异分析

Analysis on the Relative Difference of the Relationship between Regional Population and Economic Growth

由于我国地域广阔、地区发展不平衡,地区经济与人口指标的绝对数差异较大,不宜直接进行比较分析。为此,本文以1990—2020年省级数据为基础,选择了若干代表性的相对指标,对全国三十一个省(直辖市、自治区)人口增长、经济增长,及其二者关系进行定量分析。研究表明,地区人口相对指标与地区经济相对指标之间具有密切的相关关系;但在各地区之间的具体表现并不一致,有的趋同有的不趋同。进一步的因子分析结果显示,人口因子得分与经济因子得分正负号相一致,即人口增长与经济增长变动趋势比较同步的地区占全国半数以上;对因子总得分作聚类分析,结论相同。同时结果也表明,部分地区人口增长与经济增长的指标变动并不趋同,不论是经济发达地区还是欠发达地区,均存在不趋同现象。因此有关人口与经济的关系问题,不能一概而论。

Due to my country’s vast territory and unbalanced regional development,the absolute numbers of regional economic and population indicators are quite different,so it is not appropriate to directly conduct comparative analysis.To this end,based on provincial data from 1990 to 2020,this article selects a number of representative relative indicators to quantify population growth,economic growth,and the relationship between the two in 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)across the country.Studies have shown that there is a close correlation between the relative indicators of regional population and relative indicators of regional economy;however,the specific performance between regions is not consistent,some are converging and some are not converging.Further factor analysis results show that the population factor score is consistent with the sign of the economic factor score,that is,the areas where population growth and economic growth trends are more synchronized account for more than half of the country.The cluster analysis of the factor total scores shows the same conclusion.At the same time,the results also show that the changes in the indicators of population growth and economic growth in some regions are not converging,whether it is economically developed or underdeveloped regions,there is no convergence.Therefore,the relationship between population and economy cannot be generalized.