部门生产率差异是否影响了区域对外竞争力——对人民币有效汇率区域异质性的解释

Does Sectoral Productivity Difference Affect Regional Competitiveness?——An Explanation for the Regional Heterogeneity of the Effective Exchange Rate of RMB

扩展巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应模型并建立了省际之间汇率差异的理论分析框架,采用面板固定效应模型对人民币实际有效汇率的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明,2015年以后,各省人民币实际有效汇率的异质性明显;巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应可用于解释省际汇率差异,假设各省贸易品一价定律成立,各省贸易品部门与非贸易品部门生产率差异、部门结构及劳动力跨部门流动程度等的不同导致贸易品和非贸易品的相对价格差异,由此各省人民币实际有效汇率表现出异质性。劳动力的跨省迁移由于存在结构特征,没有造成部门生产率的较大差异,对汇率的影响不显著。部门生产率差异对人民币有效汇率的影响存在门限效应,劳动力跨部门流动程度越高,巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应越明显,非贸易品部门比重的提高也使得巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应更加明显。进一步研究发现,相对于贸易品部门生产率变化,非贸易品部门生产率提升缓慢是部门生产率差异较大的主要原因。本文的研究对各地区更好应对外部冲击和提高中国整体对外竞争力有一定参考价值。

This paper extends Balassa-Samuelson effect model and establishes a theoretical framework for understanding provincial exchange rate differences,the empirical study on the factors affecting RMB real effective exchange rate(REER)is conducted by using panel fixed effect model.The results show that REER in each province is obviously heterogeneous since 2015;and Balassa-Samuelson effect is adaptable in explaining the heterogeneity of provincial exchange rate.If the law of one price in tradable goods holds in each province,the differences in productivity,sectoral structure between the tradable sector and non-tradable sector and degree of cross-sectoral labor mobility lead to differences in relative prices of tradable and non-tradable goods,therefore,the provincial RMB real effective exchange rate(PREER)features heterogeneity.Because of the structural characteristics of labor migration,there is no significant difference in productivity between the tradable sector and non-tradable sector,and the impact on exchange rate is not significant.Moreover,there is a threshold effect on REER due to the difference of sectoral productivity.The higher the degree of cross-sectoral labor mobility,the more obvious the Balassa-Samuelson effect is.The increase in the proportion of non-tradable sector has also made Balassa-Samuelson effect more significant.A further study finds that the slow productivity in non-tradable sector is the main reason for the large sectoral productivity differences relative to the changes in tradable sector productivity.This study will be conducive to handling external shocks for the regions and improving the overall external competitiveness.