深度不确定性下的灾害风险稳健决策方法评述

Review of Robust Decision-Making Methods for Disaster Risk Under Deep Uncertainty

由于未来气候变化和城市化相互耦合作用,极端气候事件频发,尤其是沿海超大城市所面临的复合洪水风险持续上升。基于稳健决策方法,评估未来潜在适应措施的表现性能及经济效益,提出适应风险的实施路径,可有效管理极端灾害事件,降低灾害风险,增强城市韧性。首先分析了国际上处理深度不确定性的稳健决策方法理论基础,其次评述了被广泛应用于灾害风险领域的稳健决策、多目标稳健决策、动态适应性规划、适应对策路径、动态适应性对策路径及实物期权分析6种稳健决策方法,并进行系统对比分析。最后,提出未来可综合稳健决策和适应对策路径的优点,也可使用多目标稳健决策解决多目标问题、权衡多目标决策。此外,实物期权分析可量化适应措施的决策投资时机。这些稳健决策方法都为解决深度不确定性、降低灾害风险、制定适应气候变化策略提供了方法和工具。

Due to the coupling of future climate change and urbanization,extreme climate events will occur frequently,and the risk of compound flooding faced by coastal megacities continues to increase.Based on robust decision-making methods,evaluate the performance and economic benefit of potential future adaptation measures,and propose an implementation path for adaptation risks,which can effectively manage extreme disaster events,reduce disaster risks,and enhance urban resilience.This sudy first analyzes the theoretical basis of international robust decision-making methods for dealing with deep uncertainty,and secondly reviews the robust decision-making and multi-objective robust decision-making,dynamic adaptive planning,adaptive strategy pathway,dynamic adaptive policy pathway and real option analysis,and approaches that are widely used in the field of disaster risk.The six robust decision-making methods of dynamic adaptive policy pathways are compared and analyzed.Finally,we propose the advantages of integrating robust decision-making and dynamic adaptive policy pathway in the future,and also using many objective robust decision making to solve multi-objective problems and weigh multi-objective decision-making.In addition,real option analysis can quantify the timing of investment decisions for adaptation measures.These robust decision-making methods all provide methods and tools for solving deep uncertainty,reducing disaster risks,and formulating strategies to adapt to climate change.