经营规模、风险感知对农户水土保持耕作技术采用意愿的影响——基于政府补贴的调节效应

Effects of operation scale and risk perception on farmers’willingness to adopt conservation tillage technology

利用bootstrap检验法,构建有调节的中介作用模型,分析了经营规模、风险感知、政府补贴与农户水土保持耕作技术采用意愿之间的关系。结果表明:1)在经营规模对等高耕作、少免耕、深松耕、秸秆还田和残茬覆盖技术采用意愿有显著的正向作用,对沟垄种植技术采用意愿有显著的负向作用。2)风险感知在经营规模影响农户等高耕作和残茬覆盖技术采用意愿中发挥中介作用;在农户少免耕技术采用意愿中,风险感知的中介作用在政府补贴均值组和低于均值组中显著,在政府补贴高于均值组中不显著;在农户地膜覆盖技术采用意愿中,风险感知的中介作用在政府补贴均值组和高于均值组中显著,在政府补贴低于均值组中不显著;在农户沟垄种植、深松耕和秸秆还田技术采用意愿中,风险感知的中介作用不显著。3)在少免耕和地膜覆盖技术采用意愿中,政府补贴的调节作用显著;在等高耕作、沟垄种植、深松耕、秸秆还田和残茬覆盖技术采用意愿中,政府补贴的调节作用不显著。

By using the bootstrap test,we built a moderated mediating effect model,and analyzed the relationships between the scale of operation,risk perception,government subsidies and the farmer’s willingness of soil and water conservation tillage technology.The results show that:1)The scale of operation has significant positive effect on the willingness of adopting contour tillage,moderate or non-tillage,subsoiling,straw ploughing and stubble mulching technology,and it has significant negative effect on willingness of groove ridge planting technology adoption.2)Risk perception plays an mediating role in the influence of operation scale on farmers’willingness to adopt contour tillage and stubble mulching technology.In the willingness of farmers to adopt moderate or non-tillage technology,the mediating effect of risk perception is significant in the mean group and the lower group of government subsidy,but not significant in the higher group.In the willingness of farmers to adopt plastic film covering,the mediating effect of risk perception is significant in the mean group and above the mean group of government subsidies,but not significant in the lower group of government subsidies.The mediating effect of risk perception is not significant in the willingness of farmers to adopt groove ridge planting,subsoiling and straw ploughing technology.3)In the willingness to adopt moderate or non-tillage and plastic film covering technology,the government subsidy has a significant moderating effect.The moderating effect of government subsidy is not significant in contour tillage,groove ridge planting,subsoiling,straw ploughing and stubble mulching.