基于可靠性方法的海底管道弯头失效概率计算

Failure Probability Calculation based on Structure Reliability Method

管道弯头处的冲蚀损伤是输送含砂流体的海底管道失效的主要原因。因冲蚀作用内部变薄的管道在原额定压力作用下会产生泄漏或爆裂。本文基于结构可靠性方法,通过构建弯头冲蚀失效的极限状态方程,引入偏差因子及不确定度等参数,计算弯头失效可靠性指标,预测弯头在额定服役状态下的失效概率,降低海底管道弯头失效风险。

The erosion damage at the pipe elbow is the main reason for the failure of the submarine pipeline that transports sandy fluids.The internally thinned pipeline due to erosion will leak or burst under the original rated pressure.Based on structural reliability method(SRA),this paper has established the limit state function of elbow erosion failure.Considering bias and uncertainty factors,failure index can be calculated to predict the failure probability of elbow,which reduces the failure risk of submarine pipeline elbow.