经济政策不确定性对我国企业国内并购的影响研究

Research on the Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Domestic Mergers and Acquisitions in China

近年来,我国制定与执行了一系列经济政策助力经济转型升级,经济政策不确定性增加,对企业投资决策产生了重大影响。本文引入中国经济政策不确定性指数,选取我国A股上市公司2005—2018年发生的并购事件作为样本,研究经济政策不确定性对企业国内并购行为的影响。实证结果表明,经济政策不确定性的增加会在短期内抑制企业作出国内并购决策,企业会延迟并购决策,但不会放弃并购行为。同时,经济政策不确定性通过实物期权渠道对企业并购决策产生了抑制作用,而在经济政策不确定性较大情况下依然采取并购行为的企业会有更高的并购绩效。研究结论揭示了经济政策不确定性对企业国内并购决策的影响,为政府制定经济政策和企业实施并购行为提供参考。

In recent years, China has made and implemented a series of economic policies to help the economic transformation and upgrading, and the economic policy uncertainty has increased, which has a great impact on the investment decision-making of enterprises. This paper introduces the index of China’s economic policy uncertainty, and selects the domestic mergers and acquisitions of China A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2018 as samples to study the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the domestic merger and acquisition behavior of enterprises. The empirical results show that, the increase of economic policy uncertainty will inhibit enterprises from making domestic merger and acquisition decisions in the short term, the enterprises will only delay but not cancel the merger and acquisition decision. In the meanwhile, the economic policy uncertainty has a restraining effect on the decision-making of mergers and acquisitions through the real option channel, and the enterprises that still make merger and acquisition decisions will have higher performance when the economic policy uncertainty is high. The research results reveal the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the domestic merger and acquisition decision, and provide reference for the government to make economic policy as well as the enterprises to implement mergers and acquisitions.