面向重大突发灾害事故的应急疏散研究综述

A Review on Emergency Evacuation Methods for Major Sudden Disasters and Accidents

重大突发灾害事故时有发生,给人民的生命财产安全带来了严重的威胁。应急疏散作为灾后应急响应的重要环节,对减少人员伤亡有着重要意义。经过长期发展,研究人员利用多种方式观察到了许多具有重要价值的疏散规律,也提出了多个优秀的模型方法。然而,应急疏散涉及到的灾害事故类型、受灾人群和应急场景等多样复杂,导致应急疏散模型的侧重点和方法论等各有不同,加大了读者对应急疏散研究现状的全局理解难度。从应急疏散行为分析、模拟仿真、策略优化、预案实施等多个角度对现有重大突发灾害事故下的应急疏散研究现状进行梳理、归纳与总结,旨在厘清一条清晰的应急疏散研究脉络。在此基础之上,进一步提炼出当前面临的主要难题与解决思路,服务于应急疏散的下一步发展。

Objectives:Major disasters and accidents happened from time to time,posing serious threats to the people’s lives,property,and sustainable developments of human social economy.As an important part of post-disaster emergency response,emergency evacuation makes great contributions to reducing casualties.With massive efforts of researchers from various domains for decades,many valuable patterns of evacuation were observed and excellent models have been proposed to develop the emergency evacuation theory and methodology.However,the disaster and accident types,affected people,and emergency scenarios embedded into emergency evacuations for major disasters and accidents are very complicated and diverse.As a result,the focuses and methodologies of emergency evacuation models are widely different,greatly increasing the difficulty of understanding its research status from a global perspective.Methods:In order to solve this issue,we review and briefly criticize the literatures of emergency evacuation models from multiple perspectives,including emergency evacuation behavioral modeling,evacuation simulation,evacuation strategy optimization,implementation of emergency preparedness plans,and so on.By collecting,classifying,and summarizing current research status,a clear clue of emergency evacuation researches is presented.Results:Within this classification system,the evacuation requirements of major disasters and accidents,evacuation behavioral characteristics,functions and application scenarios of evacuation models,advantages and disadvantages of evacuation models would be easily captured.Furthermore,the bottlenecks of current unsettled challenges,burgeoning high technology,and future directions are presented from the author’ s opinion for the next developments of emergency evacuation researches.Conclusions:With these systematic and methodical introductions,readers can easily understand the evacuation models and their applicable scenarios from both global and local perspectives.