政策驱动对体育产业资本价值波动的影响研究

Influence of Policy Driving on the Fluctuation of Capital Value of Sports Industry

体育政策作为推动体育产业发展的动力,是其高质量发展的保障,而政策如何影响体育产业资本市场则是各界一直关注的热点。综合运用事件分析法和希尔伯特黄变换法,探究我国2013年至2020年间336条体育产业政策对体育产业板块指数价值波动产生的影响作用,从政策与资本市场互动视角实证分析体育政策对体育产业资本市场的促进作用。研究发现:303条政策对体育产业板块指数短期震荡产生了影响;资本市场的波动对宏观政策的反应具有一定的滞后性,国家层面发布的政策中有55条对体育产业板块指数长期波动产生了作用,其中体育消费、全民健身、体育赛事运动等政策具有较好的长期利好效应,但产业规范、管理制度类型的政策作用未产生预期效果,甚至形成了显著的利空效应,85个地方政府的体育产业政策形成了长期利好效应,政策创新与资本区域聚集效应明显。建议从完善政策多方合作机制、深化产业放管服、引导发挥市场调节机制、鼓励地方政策创新等方面入手逐步形成政策引导资本、资本支持实业的长效发展路径。

As the driving force to promote the development of sports industry,sports policy is the guarantee of its high-quality development,and how the policy affects the capital market of sports industry has been the focus of attention.With the comprehensive use of event analysis method and Hilbert-Huang transform method,this paper explored the influence of 336 sports industry policies on the medium and long-term fluctuations of sports industry sector index from 2013—2020,analyzed the promoting effect of China’s sports industry policies on the sports industry market from the perspective of capital market fluctuation.The results showed that 303 items policies had impacts on the short-term market shocks;The capital market had certain hysteresis response on the macro industry policies.55 items of the national policies had long-term effects on sports industry sector index,the sports consumption,the national fitness and sports planning policies had good long-term positive effect,but a lot of the type of specification,management system of industry policy were invalid,even form a significant negative effect.The sports industry policies released by 85 local governments had formed medium and long-term favorable effects,and the effects of policy innovation and capital regional aggregation are obvious.It is suggested that the long-term development path of policy guiding capital and capital supporting industry should be gradually formed by improving the multi-party cooperation mechanism of policy,deepening industrial delegating power and service,guiding market regulation mechanism and encouraging local policy innovation.