机坪滑行方案安全评估

Safety Assessment of Apron Taxiing Schemes

为了查找机坪滑行方案存在的不足,降低机坪管制不安全事件的发生率,构建了针对机坪管制滑行方案的安全评估模型.具体思路为:从机坪推出入位冲突、滑行路线交叉、冲突管理、方案复杂度、滑行路线使用原则、移交点选择等角度建立了评估指标体系.根据民航局相关文件将风险等级划分为可接受,可容忍和不可接受.由专家组对各个指标权重进行评估,由评估人员对每个指标下的风险等级进行评估.引入灰色关联理论确定专家和评估人员的权重,引入集对分析理论表达各个指标风险评估的不确定性,以置信度准则判断风险等级.研究结果表明:模型理论依据充分,评估结果可靠.

To find out the shortcomings of the apron control taxiing scheme in large airports and reduce the number of apron control unsafe incidents,a safety assessment model for taxiing schemes of the apron control is established.The specific ideas are as follows:the evaluation index system is established from the perspectives of apron conflict among push back and entry,taxiing route crossing,conflict management,scheme complexity,Principles of use of taxiing way,handover point selection and so on.According to the relevant documents of Civil Aviation Administration,the risk level is classified as acceptable,tolerable and unacceptable.The weight of each index is evaluated by the expert group,and the risk level of each index is evaluated by the evaluator.Grey correlation theory is introduced to determine the weight of experts and evaluators,set pair analysis theory is introduced to express the uncertainty of risk assessment of each index,and confidence criterion is used to judge the risk level The results show that the model has a sound theoretical basis and reliable assessment results.