超越地区霸权?——试析奥巴马政府以来美国在中东的战略转型

Beyond Regional Hegemony?An Assessment on the U.S.Strategic Transitions in the Middle East

美国在保留中东军事基地和设施的同时,削减了前沿驻军,并逐步实践新的战争方式。地缘战略重心转移、财政紧缩,以及技术创新是促成美国实施中东军事转型并取得阶段性成果的重要原因。美国未来将进一步减少前沿军事存在,以技术创新提升新的战争方式。美国力图改善在对中东的双边援助中"安全援助"与"民生援助"严重失衡的现象,以创新举措强化民生援助,但"安全援助"与"民生援助"依然严重失衡,这源于安全问题在中东议事日程上的重要性及利益集团的根深蒂固,短期内难以消除,而美国为强化"民生援助"采取的创新举措难以产生规模效应。美国旨在以网络状联盟体系取代既有的辐辏装联盟体系,但在其打造"阿拉伯版北约"的过程中,整合海湾阿拉伯盟友的努力遭遇挫折;与此同时,美国再次推进了阿以和平进程。阻碍或有利于"阿拉伯版北约"的因素将在较长时期内同时存在,美国打造地区网络状联盟的战略构想难以完整实现。

The United States has pulled back some troops from the Middle East while it maintains and even enhances the bases and installations in the region,and has been practicing a new American Way of War.The U.S.has made some progresses in terms of military transition due to geostrategic shifts,financial contractions,and technical innovations,and would further decrease its forward presence and improve the new American Way of War through innovations in the region.The United States has tried to bridge the great gap between"security assistance"and"assistance for people"in its existing bilateral aid towards the Middle East and to promote the latter by innovative measures.In forging"An Arab NATO,"America’s efforts to integrate Arab allies in the Gulf has met some frustrations,but it has promoted the Arab-Israeli peace process once again.Both pros and cons of"An Arab NATO"have had their origins in the regional geostrategic developments which would be there for a long while,and the U.S.strategic design for networking alliances in the Middle East could hardly come entirely true.