基于系统动力学的内河危化品运输系统安全管理研究

Research on the safety management of the inland river dangerous chemicals transportation system based on the system dynamics

保障内河危化品运输安全是运输系统安全管理的重要组成部分。为进一步提高运输安全性,根据重大危险源现实危险性评价方法,从危险性和抵消因子的层面出发,引入能见度因素,建立了内河危化品现实危险性系统动力学模型,并建立了相关要素的评分标准。根据系统动力学仿真软件进行现实模拟,得到相关数据,通过分析数据研究各影响因素对运输系统安全性的影响。结果表明,整个交通系统的核心是人员,人员因素对船舶交通运输安全起着重大作用,在人员积极性较高的中期阶段加大工艺、设备安全性的提升,对于提高危化品运输安全有重要作用。加强管理因素可在现有风险基础上降低事故风险,优化和提高运输安全,尤其是在运输后期有重要作用。

The main purpose of this paper is to study the main factors that tend to lead to the risks at different stages to further improve the safety of the inland river navigation and transportation of the dangerous chemicals so as to promote and realize the successful inland river transportation safety effectively.To achieve the above said purposes,the said paper has established a real risk system dynamics model for transporting such chemicals.And,so,in accordance with the practical risk assessment method of major hazard goods,we have worked out a series of offset factors as a result of a series of consideration.And,then,full attention has been paid to the study of the actual risks likely to meet with the final assessment indexes of the model by establishing a set of evaluation criteria of the relevant influential factors.For instance,the practical inspection and analysis of the Vensim PLE have been simulated as a case to the shipping of the xylene dangerous goods.Furthermore,MATLAB has been used to plot the data generated by VENSIM_PLE to trace the influence of the human factors on such actual hazards in the early stage.We can found that the influence of the human factors on such actual hazards in the early stage indeed give more serious impacts than those with the processing and the equipment itself.Then comparing the simulation results of the personnel quality offset factors,equipment offset factors.We can conclude that the process and the facilities concerned may play greater role than the human factors.Nevertheless,in the later stage,human factors may offer greater influence on the process and equipment.So,it can be concluded that human factors should be of greater potential in playing a dominant role in the safety of the transportation system.Next,by changing the significance of each element in the safety management,strengthening the management factor should play a dominant role in making sure the transportation safety.Apart from it,previous studies have also verified the dominant significance of the human and equipment factors.Therefore,this paper particularly gives particular stress on the critical role and the absolutely dominant role of human factors in the different stages of the production,and in turn,it should play its own dominant role in promoting the safety and security transportation of the inland dangerous chemicals.