区域高质量发展的时空演变及驱动因素分析——以甘青宁地区为例

Temporal-Spatial Evolution and Driving Factors of Regional High-Quality Development:Taking Gansu-Qinghai-Ningxia Region as an Example

从经济发展、社会和谐、生态安全、城乡融合出发构建指标体系,运用熵值法、变异系数法和地理探测器对甘青宁地区高质量发展的时空演变特征和驱动因素进行研究。结果表明,2010-2018年甘青宁地区高质量发展总体向好,但地区差异逐渐拉大,高质量发展仍处于初级阶段;经济发展、社会和谐、生态安全、城乡融合水平总体均呈增长趋势,经济发展和生态安全水平地区差异逐渐缩小,社会和谐和城乡融合水平地区差异逐渐扩大;高质量发展的主要驱动因素是经济发展,第三产业增加值占GDP比重、每千人口卫生技术人员数、森林覆盖率、城乡人均消费支出比分别是经济发展、社会和谐、生态安全和城乡融合的主要驱动因素,各层级任意两因子交互后解释力更强。基于以上结论得出了政策启示。

From the perspective of economic development,social harmony,ecological security,and urban-rural integration,an index system is constructed,and the entropy method,coefficient of variation method and geographic detector are used to study the characteristics and driving factors of the spatial and temporal evolution of high-quality development in Gansu-Qinghai-Ningxia region.The results show that,from 2010 to 2018,the quality development in Gansu-Qinghai-Ningxia region is generally good,but the regional differences are gradually widening,and the high-quality development is still in its infancy;economic development,social harmony,ecological security,and urban-rural integration levels are generally increasing.Regional differences in economic development and ecological security levels have gradually narrowed,and regional differences in social harmony and urban-rural integration have gradually widened;the main driving factors for high-quality development are economic development,the value added of the tertiary industry to GDP,the number of health technicians per thousand population,Forest coverage and urban-rural per capita consumption expenditure ratio are the main driving factors of economic development,social harmony,ecological security and urban-rural integration,respectively.The interaction between any two factors at all levels is more explanatory.Based on the above results,it provides relevant recommendations on how to improve the level of the high-quality development of Gansu-Qinghai-Ningxia region.